Monsoon progresses over Delhi, North-West India might slow down a bit

Moderate to severe thunderstorms, with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning are very likely over East UP and Bihar. This may cause injuries and casualties to people and animals staying outdoors

After making a strong start, covering more than two-thirds of the country a fortnight ahead of its schedule, the southwest monsoon seems to have stalled a bit over parts of North-West India as "large-scale features are not favourable" for its advance, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.

The monsoon’s progress over parts of Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab and Delhi is likely to be slow, the met department said.

“This is not a break in monsoon by any count, but just that the pace seen so far might have slackened a bit. However, the monsoon is well on course to cover the entire country well within its scheduled date,” Chief Meteorologist of private weather forecasting firm Skymet said.

He said the normal date of onset of monsoon over Delhi is June 27 and it will reach the capital by that time.

The IMD said that the wind pattern by numerical models does not indicate any favourable condition for sustained rainfall over the region during the forecast period.

The met on Thursday had said the impact of mid-latitude westerly on the monsoon is likely to continue till June 23 and hence its advance into Rajasthan, remaining parts Punjab, Haryana and Delhi is not likely during the period.

It had said the monsoon flow pattern is likely to organise and strengthen gradually between June 26 and June 30, and the further advance to most parts of northwest India is likely during the same period.

The weather department had earlier predicted that the wind system may reach Delhi by June 15, around 12 days early.

Normally, the monsoon reaches Delhi by June 27 and covers the entire country by July 8.

Last year, the wind system had reached Delhi on June 25 and covered the entire country by June 29, according to Skymet Weather, a private forecasting agency.

On Sunday, the Met office said isolated "heavy to very heavy" rainfall is very likely over east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during the next 24 hours under the influence of a low-pressure area.

Moderate to severe thunderstorms accompanied by frequent cloud-to-ground lightning are very likely over the region during the period. This may cause injuries leading to casualties to people and animals staying outdoors, the weather department said.

Isolated heavy showers are also very likely over Uttarakhand on Monday under the influence of a western disturbance as a trough in mid-tropospheric levels and monsoonal easterlies.

The IMD in June had upped its 2021 monsoon forecast to 101 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with most parts of the country, except parts of East and North-East India, expected to get normal to above normal rainfall.

Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal rainfall. The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent.