Rain is 2% surplus at the all-India level, shows CRISIL Drip index

Rains have seen an unprecedented catch-up this year. Latest data shows rain is 2 per cent surplus (or above normal) at the all-India level, 13 per cent surplus in central India, and 6% surplus in the southern region, while the northwestern region had a minor deficit of 2 per cent. (still considered normal).

Yet, it is possible to see some skew in the distribution of rains. Eastern India has logged a deficiency of 15 per cent, though the shortage is not a big worry for crops given the low share of the region in crop production.

The resurgence of the southwest monsoon has improved the chances of healthy agricultural production for this year. To some extent, though, the uncertainty on the extent of crop damage due to excess rains is a reason for concern for the kharif crop, but healthy reservoir capacities and improved groundwater levels will benefit the rabi crop.

Overall, rains have progressed quickly from recording a 19 per cent deficiency on a cumulative basis as of July-end, to 9 per cent deficiency as of July-end, and a 2 per cent surplus so far. The catch-up was the highest in Uttar Pradesh (UP), Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka. But some major kharif-growing states are still reeling under deficient rains.

That said, rainfall volume data alone does not tell the whole story. We need to consider vulnerabilities that arise from inadequate irrigation for a comprehensive perspective on states and crops.

CRISIL’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter (DRIP) does just that. The higher the CRISIL DRIP score, the more adverse the impact of deficient rains. We compare scores not just with the previous year, but also with the last five-year average, to get a more holistic picture.

Source: MET, agriculture ministry and CRISIL