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While his party workers took to the streets in Patna and elsewhere in Bihar against the Nitish Kumar government, Modi refrained from any direct comment for weeks. He also turned down an invitation from the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) to attend a function at Ayodhya. And, he surprised everyone with his advocacy for a consensual approach while addressing a rally at Pathankot in Punjab. He said: ‘<I>Yeh wo samay hai ki hum dalon ko bhi jodenge and dilon ko bhi</I>’ (This is the time to unify parties and hearts).
What has occasioned this change of approach — coalition compulsion or genuine evolution of someone associated with a hardline Hindutva in the not-so-distant past? A bit of both, say experts. While <I>dalon ko jodenge</I> is intended for parties that might become BJP’s future allies should the need arise, the evolution is part of the strategy to win back supporters who deserted the party after the Gujarat pogrom of 2002, say political scientists.
There is an influential group of middle class Hindus who don’t like instability and conflict. They were favourably inclined to the BJP but left it in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, following the 2002 riots, says D L Sheth, former director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. Modi’s new approach is intended to get that group back to the fold, he adds.
The record
Modi was the first fulltime Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) pracharak to become chief minister of a state, when he took charge of Gujarat in late 2001. But not before serving a long innings with the RSS. He started going to the shakhas when just eight years old and became a fulltime volunteer in his early 20s. The transition from the RSS to the BJP happened in 1987; the next year, he became general secretary of the party’s Gujarat unit. He, with Keshubhai Patel and Shankarsinh Vaghela, is credited with bringing the BJP to power in the state for the first time on its own in 1995. Before becoming CM, he held various positions with the central unit of the party.
The initial part of the Modi regime in Gujarat were tumultuous. The post-Godhra violence had rocked the state and Modi was blamed for his government’s inaction. He had to face a lot of criticism, not only from political leaders and social activists but also from many people from within his party and a large section of the business community.
Things began to change with the first edition of the Vibrant Gujarat Summit in 2003. From then, Modi began to chant the development mantra. In speech after speech, he talked about the co-existence of Gujarat and development. Yet, all through, there was a strategy to establish the hegemony of the Hindu majority that can be translated into political majority, says Sheth. Along the way, Modi realised this hegemony could be effectively established only with the help of consensus and not through conflict and violence, is Sheth’s observation.
Strategy contour
The question is, who is Modi trying to woo with this consensual approach? The middle class and youth? While most groups have well defined political positions, votes of the educated middle class — rural or urban — keep shifting. It is this group that ensured the UPA’s victory in 2004, disenchanted as they were with the politics of violence and conflict that the BJP had come to be associated with, feels Sheth.
The said group isn’t homogenous. However, it has strong presence in the social media space, almost a 100-million user community in the country. The Internet and Mobile Association of India came out with a report recently that said 160 of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies are likely to be highly influenced by social media. Another 67 seats will see medium impact; another 60 should see low-level impact. This means social media will have some impact on the outcome in 287 of 543 constituencies, according to the report. High impact constituencies, it says, are those with more than 10 per cent active users of social media sites.
Political observers say Modi is keen to keep this group in good humour through Google hangout, 3D campaigning and a dedicated group of workers selling his development dream in the online community. Being very tech savvy, Modi has this knack of anticipating the impact of technical innovation. He is aware of the power of social media and has been pursuing this group for many years, says an Ahmedabad-based political analyst.
Given the size of the active online community, it is hard to predict its political preference. Modi’s supporters claim he is the most popular leader in the social media space.
There is no independent research supporting or disputing this claim. But there does exist what social historian Ramachandra Guha writes in a recent essay, the intensely chauvinistic tribe of Internet Hindus. Guha says the younger lot is impatient, seeking to overcome India’s manifest weakness as a nation and a state with an infusion of the right kind of dharmic energy.
Reactions
For this group of middle class and youth, Modi is Mr Development, Mr Security and Mr Superhero, who can rid the country of all problems, says social scientist Shiv Vishwanathan. Little does this group realise, he adds, that Modi is a designer politician†who has contempt for politics, for the party he represents, ordinary politicians and ordinary people.
That’s one view; psephologist and BJP leader G V L Narasimha Rao disagrees. He says given Modi’s underprivileged background, he understands the pulse of the people and hence the connect with the masses. The country’s youth gets attracted to him because of his single-minded pursuit of development without any digression and without wasting any time, he adds.