Skymet weather prediction 2022: Southwest monsoon to be 'normal' at 98%

"The first half of the 2022 monsoon season is expected to fare better than the latter. Monsoon is likely to make a decent start during the onset month of June," Skymet said.

Private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, today said that the southwest monsoon in 2022 is expected to be 'normal' at 98 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The forecast is with an error margin of plus and minus 5 percent.

The LPA for the June to September four-month monsoon season is around 881 millimeters. Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered as 'normal'.

Releasing its first detailed official forecast of monsoon 2022, Skymet said the first half of the southwest monsoon (that is the months of June and July) is expected to fare better than the latter half of the season (August and September).

A good southwest monsoon in 2022 is expected to boost agriculture production which should ease some of the inflationary concerns in the months to come while at the same time aiding the overall economy.

This is because despite improvement in irrigation, almost half of the total cultivable land in India is still dependent on rains.

Meanwhile, in terms of geographical risks, Rajasthan and Gujarat along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura of the northeast region are at risk of being rain deficient throughout the season.

Also, the state of Kerala and North Interior Karnataka will witness scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August.

But, the grain bowl of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, in North India, and rainfed areas of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will witness above normal rainfall in 2022.

Skymet also said that rainfall in June is expected to be 107 of the LPA of that month, while rainfall in July is expected to be 100 per cent of the LPA.

In August, rainfall across India is expected to be around 95 per cent of the LPA while in September, rains are expected to be 90 per cent of the LPA of that month.

In terms of probability, the weather agency said that southwest monsoon 2022 has 65 percent chance of being normal, 25 percent chance of being deficit and 10 per cent chance of being 'above normal'. There is no chance of 2022 being a drought year.

"The last two monsoon seasons have been driven by back-to-back La Nina events. Earlier, La Nina had started shrinking sharply in winters, but its fallback has been stalled on account of the strengthening of trade winds. Though it has passed its peak, La Nina cooling of the Pacific Ocean is likely to prevail till, short of the onset of southwest monsoon. Therefore, the occurrence of El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out. However, pulsating behavior of the monsoon is expected to transpire abrupt and intense rains, interspersed by abnormally long dry spells,” Yogesh Patil, CEO, Skymet said.

He said, Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, albeit having a propensity of negative inclination closer to the threshold margins. Monsoon will have to ride over ENSO - neutral conditions, while battling resistance from IOD, especially during the second half of the season.

"This possibly can lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution," Patil said.