In Indian politics, 2013 is probably going to be even more important than 2014, the year of the general election. For, there’s an element of predictability about 2014. An election will take place, a parliamentary majority will elect a prime minister and that PM will put a government together.
But 2013 is about getting to that point. It is about cunning, guile and ruthlessness, manipulation, intelligence and bravery.
‘Game changer’ is an overused phrase. But many in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) do see Narendra Modi as a game changer in 2013.
In 2013 and beyond, Modi’s rise will mimic the emergence of a new swayamsevak — relatively younger, adept at technology and at ease with it, and trying to leverage globalisation. By becoming a threat to one section of the RSS because he has challenged its authority, Modi is building bridges with another section in the Sangh which views him with sympathy, even affection and respect.
Modi has done exceedingly well. He is one of a handful to become chief minister thrice in a row. In his own party in the state, he has decimated all opposition. His government has not just been about governance but also delivery. And, in 2012, unlike 2007, the idea of the Hindu has undergone a subtle change. Modi has refocused it to embody a thought that has been in the background so far: ‘justice for all, appeasement of none’.
Politically, this idea of India is sure to be challenged by both Mulayam Singh Yadav, chief of the Samajwadi party, and
P Chidambaram of the Congress. In 2013, these two leaders will make moves to propel their parties into competing in the space for inclusive politics. Given the perilously thin majority the Congress has in the Rajya Sabha, it cannot afford to rile Mulayam Singh. At the same time, all the schemes the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government has launched for the welfare of minorities make it very clear whom the party is reaching out to, to comfort and reassure. The problem is, Mulayam Singh Yadav is seeking the same vote base.
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A question that could legitimately be asked is why Chidambaram is on this list and not Sonia or Rahul Gandhi? Simply because 2013 will be the last year the UPA government will get to deliver on unfinished promises. Of course, the process of party and base building will go on. But this is an ongoing process. 2013 will be about what the government does (or does not do) and how it captures the performance and good governance space. The responsibility for capturing India’s collective imagination will fall more on those who are managing the government than the party.
The fourth man who will either be a hero or a zero in 2013 is in jail. The Honourable Member of Parliament from the Lok Sabha constituency of Kadapa, Y S Jaganmohan Reddy, holds the key to the fortunes of the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, such as they are. There are 32 MPs from Andhra Pradesh in the Congress’ tally of 206 in the Lok Sabha. This works out to roughly 15 per cent. Not all owe their loyalty to Reddy. But Congressmen freely acknowledge that if their tally from AP drops, they are likely to be in serious trouble in 2014. What they will do about the state in 2013 will determine the 2014 outcome.
The newest kid on the block is the Aam Aadmi Party leader, Arvind Kejriwal. How he rolls out his agenda for politics beyond the issues around defalcation of public money and ethics and morality needs to be watched.
In this context, a story has to be told. In the 1970s, urban India saw the growth and development of a movement that called itself Jai Gurudev. Relying on inspiring graffiti and making use of messianic discourses preaching austerity that caught the spiritual imagination of a large populace, the movement became a lesson for those seeking to learn strategies of mobilisation.
One evening, the movement would collect up to a million people. Political parties saw the utility of the mobilisation and a race started to co-opt its head, called Jai Gurudev by his followers. He saw his crop was being harvested by politicians and wondered why he should allow this. So, on the eve of elections, he launched his own political party, called the Doordarshi (farseeing) Party. All political parties thought this would cut into their base. When the results were declared, it was found most of the Doordarshi candidates lost their deposit. And, Jai Gurudev quietly vanished.
To be sure, Kejriwal has collected more political capital than that. But 360 degrees of purity means taking the politically correct position on khap panchayats, on caste, on tribe, on migration, on the death penalty, on Hindi, on English… absorbing,
There’s no denying it. If nothing else, 2013 is going to be an absorbing, entertaining and enlightening year.