Vaccine makers bet global demand, boosters will drive growth next year

Domestic demand had fallen after cases began to decline. Omicron surge may reverse the trend

Global demand for Covid-19 vaccines as well as for booster shots will drive the growth of the Indian vaccine industry in 2022, said insiders. Work on new-generation vaccines has also begun.

Only 48 per cent of people worldwide have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19. According to ourworldindata.org, only 1.24 per cent of people in African countries such as Ethiopia had been fully covered with two vaccine shots as of December 23.

A senior Bharat Biotech official said a certain demographic in India would always go out and get vaccinated if there is a fear of disease. “Similarly, another set of people may take a vaccine more pro-actively. But, if we look at the opportunities from a global perspective, there is a lot of scope,” the official said.

Bharat Biotech is trying for approval of Covaxin in the US. “So far, there is not a single vaccine approved in the US. We are trying for that,” he felt.

Demand for vaccinations in India had fallen after the cases began to decline. With Omicron as the new variant of concern and the government allowing a third shot for the elderly, health care, and frontline workers, the demand is expected to again rise steadily. Vaccinations for children is another factor — around 400 million children are under 18 years of age. So far, vaccinations have been opened up only for those aged 15 to 18.

“There is a dip in vaccination demand in India as there is no surge in cases, but there are countries that are talking of a third booster dose, and some are thinking of a fourth shot as well. Demand for Covid-19 vaccines in India may be lower than 2021, but global demand will remain,” the Bharat Biotech official said.

Its peer, Serum Institute of India (SII), which reduced Covishield production by half this month to about 120-125 million monthly doses, said it also expected to return to full production by the first quarter of the 2022 calendar year.

A company source said, “The demand for exports is expected to rise steadily. Some countries are facing logistical issues related to the cold chain. Once these are sorted out, the exports will gather pace.”

SII has a stock of 500 million doses (half of which is in bulk form) at its Pune plant.

Logistical issues apart, some countries have opted for alternative vaccines in the absence of steady supplies from India. “We are facing an uphill battle in some export markets where we have not been supplying for the past eight months or so. So, we have to now win those markets,” Bharat Biotech said.

Companies such as Panacea Biotec, which is now contract manufacturing vaccines like the Sputnik V, are hopeful that demand would continue in 2022, as they work on new-generation Covid-19 vaccines.

“We will continue to do research on vaccines, as new variants of this virus keep coming. One would have to keep developing appropriate vaccines that would act as boosters. It is not just about who makes it first, but who comes out with the best-suited product,” said Rajesh Jain, managing director, Panacea Biotec.

2021 was also a landmark year for the global and Indian vaccine industry.

SII was making 1.5 billion doses in FY19-20. From there, it steadily ramped up its capacities, and it has now touched a capacity of 4 billion annual doses for Covishield. It also continues to make non-Covid vaccines.

Bharat Biotech started ramping up Covaxin production around March this year. It has now touched 55-60 million doses a month and would start making 80 million monthly doses (1 billion annually) of Covaxin. This is on top of another 1 billion doses of its upcoming nasal vaccine.

Raw material supplies have been a key area of focus for vaccine makers. In April, Serum Institute Chief Executive Officer Adar Poonawalla had indicated a raw material shortage for the Novavax vaccine. The vaccine maker had started work on developing alternative sources for raw materials.

Bharat Biotech said all of its critical raw materials are now sourced from India, including the adjuvant, the packaging material, etc. “We got the molecular structure of the adjuvant from the US and then gave a grant to CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT) to develop the process. Now, we are making the adjuvant here in India,” the official said.

Meanwhile, work on Wave 2 vaccines has begun.

Experts feel one needs to prepare for the future waves of the coronavirus pandemic — multivalent Covid vaccines are in the works already. A big advantage is that no vaccine is completely failing against any particular strain. “However, nowhere in the world do we have the original strain in circulation now,” Gagandeep Kang, microbiologist and professor at Christian Medical College, Vellore, had said recently.

She had said that as for future protection against evolving strains of the Sars-CoV-2 virus, a person can be vaccinated with one dose of a vaccine based on the original strain (current vaccines in use are based on the original Wuhan strain of Sars-CoV-2), and the second dose of a vaccine based on one of the newer versions of the virus. Such a multivalent approach would give reasonable immunity against different strains of the virus. These are called Wave 2 vaccines and are already in the works, she had said.

The scientific community is also thinking about Wave 3 vaccines, where a single dose would give long-term immunity and broader coverage against various strains, according to Kang.