Weak El Nino conditions likely next month, says IMD weather report

Overall, the monsoon till August 30 has been 6% less than normal

The southwest monsoon, which has been relatively quiet during the week that ended on August 29, isn't expected to show a big improvement in the next fortnight, with rainfall activity likely to be below normal from the second week of September.

In its latest weather update, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that there was possibility of development of weak El Niño conditions in the last part of the four-month monsoon season, which began from June.

Overall, the monsoon till August 30 has been 6 per cent less than normal, with several districts of north interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Bihar, Jharkhand, Saurashtra and Kutch staring at a shortfall. The rainfall, according to agriculture ministry officials, has been well-distributed, though overall quantum might have been low in some regions. This they said won’t have any impact on the overall production of kharif crops in 2018, which is poised for another record.

On Tuesday, India said its overall foodgrains production in 2017-18 (July to June) was at an all-time high of 284.83 million tonnes, almost 2 per cent more than the last estimate that came in June, and 9.72 million tonnes more than 2016-17. The rise, however, hasn’t been beneficial for the growers because price of several commodities particularly pulses slumped due to bumper harvest.

Meanwhile, till last week, sowing of kharif crops for the 2018-19 season was around 1.3 million hectares less than last year due to shift from pulses to oilseeds in some states and low acreage due to drought in others. With the southwest monsoon entering its last month and quantum of rains expected to remain low henceforth, sowing of kharif crops isn’t expected to pick up in a big way. This would mean that acreage of some major crops might remain below last years’s level, though the actual impact on total output will depend on the weather during the remaining few weeks.