Weekly economic indicators stuck in narrow range, exports remain subdued

Electricity, freight numbers improve over previous week; but remain lower early-October levels

Key indicators of economic activity trended higher for the latest week, but remained below levels seen earlier in the month; reflecting the challenging environment for growth in gross domestic product (GDP) referred to by a central bank committee earlier in the month.

“Both private investment and exports are likely to be subdued, especially as external demand is still anaemic. Taking into consideration the above factors and the uncertain Covid-19 trajectory, real GDP growth in 2020-21 is expected to be negative...with risks tilted to the downside,” said the minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting which was held between October 7 and October 9.

Electricity generation and goods that the Indian Railways carried were higher than the previous week, though short of early-October levels. Business Standard tracks these and other high frequency numbers to get a current sense of the economic situation ahead of the release of official data. Numbers like GDP are often released with a lag.  Analysts globally have been using such indicators to understand the fast-changing situation on the ground amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Power, traffic and emissions data is as of Sunday, October 25. Railway data is as of Saturday October 24. Search engine giant Google releases location data with a lag. The latest numbers for last week are as of October 23.

The quantity of goods that the Indian Railways carried is 10.6 per cent higher than the same period last year. It was 21.3 per cent for the week ending October 10. Earnings from goods carried were also higher than the 5.1 per cent seen in the latest week (see chart 1).

 

Power generation numbers were 9.7 per cent higher than 2019. It was 16.1 per cent higher for the week ending October 4. The current levels are better than last week (see chart 2).

 

Other indicators showed limited signs of improvement.

Google uses anonymised location data to check how people are moving during the pandemic. Essentials shopping for groceries and pharmacy  visits are 9.71 per cent higher than before the pandemic.  Workplace visits are down marginally over the previous week (see chart 3).

 

Traffic data from global location technology firm TomTom International shows traffic levels are around 75 per cent of levels seen in 2019. The numbers are similar to what was seen last week (see chart 4).

 

Business Standard also tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxide. Higher levels suggest more industrial activity and vehicle use. Levels in Delhi are higher than in 2019. They are 96 per cent below normal levels in Mumbai shows Bandra locality data (see chart 5,6)