Winter is coming: New Covid-19 variants prompt alert for illness season

Health minister Mansukh Mandaviya holds review meeting as experts call for continued vigil

New variants of Covid-19 infecting people in winter when illness from influenza and pneumonia are reported may cause hospitalisations to rise, experts have said as they called for continued vigilance against the pandemic.

BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, descendants of Omicron’s BA.5 sub-variant, have dangerous “qualities or characteristics that could evade some of the interventions we have", said Dr Anthony Fauci, America’s top infectious disease expert, in a TV interview recently, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 both have dangerous “qualities or characteristics that could evade some of the interventions we have", he said, adding that one should not declare victory from Covid-19 "too prematurely".

India has reported the new variants, including XBB (Omicron sub-variant). Maharashtra has reported the BA.2.3.20 variant. A new recombinant variant, BXX, has been recorded by the Indian Sars-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics (INSACOG).

XBB is fast spreading and blamed for the spike in Covid-19 cases in Singapore recently. The Maharashtra Health Department has said it has evasive immune properties. Kerala has reported XBB cases.

The BQ.1 is a descendant of BA.5, which comprises 60 per cent of Covid-19 cases in the United States In the US, the BQ.1 strain and its descendant called BQ.1.1 have grown by 10 percent since September. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are a fast-growing subset of the Omicron variant in the US.

Also read: New Omicron subvariant BQ.1 detected in Pune; Covid cases surge in state

Fauci said BQ.1 has a "troublesome" doubling time and it has outpaced many other dominant strains in European countries.

Maharashtra and Kerala have reported these emerging variants, prompting their health departments to draw up plans. Kerala health minister Veena Geroge held this week a meeting that decided to intensify preventive measures for these new variants. Around 2 percent of those infected with Covid-19 may need hospitalisations, according to the state health department.

Maharashtra’s Health Department has predicted a possible rise in cases in winter, especially in the festive period. In Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS), BA.2.75 decreased to 76 per cent from 95 per cent, said the department, indicating a rise of other sub-variants.

Mansukh Mandaviya, Union Minister of Health and Family Welfare, on Tuesday chaired a meeting with public health experts and government officials to review the Covid-19 situation in the country, the vaccination drive and the global scenario in view of new variants.

Sources said the Health Ministry is concerned about cases rising during winter months, the season for influenza and pneumonia infections. Mandaviya asked officials to continue to focus on surveillance across the country.

“These won’t be the first variants infecting fully vaccinated people. The real question is if these will put more such people in hospitals,” said Shahid Jameel, senior research fellow at Green Templeton College at Oxford University. “The infection I would worry most about this winter is seasonal flu. There is a good vaccine available and Indians above 50 should get it.”

Gagandeep Kang, microbiologist and professor at Christian Medical College, Vellore, said that there is no evidence yet of more severe Covid-19 infections. She, however, cautioned that "layering" is a concern (with pneumonia or influenza), and this was a bad flu season in the southern hemisphere.

Doctors too worry about people getting a combination of infections. "It is important therefore that high-risk individuals should continue to take precautions especially during the coming winter season with a lot of festivals being celebrated as well. As it has been seen that during this season, there usually occurs an increase in respiratory infections including viruses. We might see resurgence of Covid by these strains or mixtures of viral infections including Covid, flu and other viruses," said Dr Vikas Maurya, director and head of department, pulmonology, Fortis Hospital Shalimar Bagh in Delhi.