'Localite' factor may help BJP

LOK SABHA CONSTITUENCY WATCH

The Mehsana Lok Sabha constituency is traditionally a stronghold of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The party has fielded Nitin Patel this year.

The Congress candidate for the seat Jivabhai Patel is mired in a legal controversy. A complaint has been filed against the Surat-based industrialist for having his name in two Assembly segments.

The returning officer has accepted Patel's nomination but has forwarded the case to the Chief Election Commissioner to take the final decision. The Congress candidate may face serious legal consequences in case of a default as per legal provisions.

The BJP's A K Patel, a Mehsana-based physician, has won the Mehsana seat for five consecutive terms from 19984 to 1998. However, in 1999 he was defeated by Motibhai Chaudhary of the Congress. Observers say Patel got beaten in 1999 only because the party was overconfident of his victory and neglected the constituency.

The BJP is confident of winning this year as Nitin Patel is a localite, while the Congress candidate is an outsider. Moreover, the BJP candidate is a Patel, and the community dominates the constituency.

Mehsana has as many as three lakh Patel voters, 2.5 lakh Thakors and 70, 000-80,000 Chaudharys (a Patel-like community).

Six of the seven Assembly segments under the Mehsana constituency were won by the BJP in the last elections. Its candidates won from Kalol, Jotana, Mehsana, Mansa, Vijapur and Visnagar by huge margins. The Congress won in Kadi.

The BJP's track record in the constituency has been good. In 1984, the Indira Gandhi wave swept BJP out of the Lok Sabha "" even its top leaders A B Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani were defeated. However, A K Patel defeated Sagar Rayka by a huge margin.

In 1989, Patel defeated Motibhai Chaudhary of the Congress by over 1.3 lakh votes. He got 59.17 per cent of votes against Choudhary's 38.52 per cent.

In 1991, Patel defeated Babaldas Patel of the Congress by a margin of 82 thousand votes. Patel got 54.25 per cent votes and his rival got 36.57 per cent votes.

In 1996, Patel defeated Manilal Patel of the Congress by a margin of over 1.2 lakh votes. He secured 56.30 per cent votes and his rival 29.68 per cent votes.

In 1998, Patel defeated Thakor candidate Mansinh Thakor by a margin of over 1.2 lakh votes. He got 45.31 per cent of the votes against his rival's 28.53 per cent votes.

In 1999, Patel lost to Atmaram Patel, who had defected from the BJP to the Shankersinh Vaghela-led group following the Khajuraho episode, by over 1.6 lakh votes. Atmaram got 61.14 per cent votes and Patel got 45.29 per cent.

Though the Congress has strong hold over the cooperatives in Mehsana Lok Sabha constituency, their house is divided on the selection of an outsider.

The BJP has strengthened its hold over the Panchayat. Recently nine members of the district panchayat joined the BJP. All the municipal bodies are controlled by the BJP. However, the recent hike in power tariffs could hamper the chances of Nitin Patel.