Between 2004-05 and 2011-12, on an average, poverty declined by two percentage points a year, experts have said. Without naming the experts, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said they came to this conclusion on the basis of the pattern of the final consumption figures for 2011-12.
The 11th Plan (2007-08 to 2011-12) had targeted reducing poverty by two percentage points by 2009-10, compared to 2004-05. However, when poverty data were released on the basis of the consumption pattern for 2009-10, these showed on an average, poverty fell 1.5 percentage points a year. Though the fall was double the 0.76-percentage point decrease a year between 1993-94 and 2004-05, it was lower than the 11th Plan target.
Ahluwalia, however, said 2009-10 was a drought year, adding the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) decided to carry out another survey of the consumption pattern for 2011-12. He said the final consumption data for 2011-12 were being processed. Experts who have worked on the data concluded poverty had declined by two percentage points between 2004-05 and 2011-12, he said. He, however, clarified this wasn’t his or the Planning Commission’s conclusion, just that of the experts.
The government has only released a part of the NSSO survey of the 2011-12 consumption expenditure. According to the data, rural household consumption grew faster than urban consumption in the July 2011-June 2012 period, compared to 2009-10. However, the 10 per cent of the population at the bottom of the consumption pyramid lived on just Rs 16.7 and Rs 23.4 a day, respectively.
Earlier, when poverty was shown to be declining by 1.5 percentage points between 2004-05 and 2009-10, the Planning Commission had drawn flak for pegging the poverty line cut-off at Rs 28.65 per capita daily consumption in cities and Rs 22.42 in rural areas. Ahluwalia said though there was a lot of debate on the poverty line, this wasn’t relevant to the question of whether poverty was declining.
The government had appointed a committee under Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council Chairman, C Rangarajan, to assess the poverty lines, among other things. “Many people feel we should raise the poverty line. So, we have set up another expert committee to do that,” Ahluwalia said.