The southwest monsoon in India this year was expected to be 85 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), with Punjab, Haryana, Saurashtra and Kutch regions in Gujarat and western Rajasthan experiencing drought-like conditions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday. The forecast has a model error margin of +/- four per cent.
IMD considers the 50-year average rainfall of 89 cms as the LPA.
Addressing reporters a day after it lowered its overall southwest monsoon forecast from normal to deficient, IMD said drought-like conditions were developing in several parts of the country. “We expect 15 per cent shortfall in seasonal rains,” said Director General L S Rathore. He added 30-34 per cent of the country faced a drought-like situation. Rainfall that is 90-95 per cent of the LPA is considered normal, while anything below that is considered deficient.
Rathore said the maximum impact of the low rains would be on coarse cereals and the groundnut crop. The output of paddy, however, would be good this year. “I believe the drop in groundnut production would be compensated by the increase in the area under soybean,” he said. So far, Uttar Pradesh had received good rainfall and there was a possibility of a rise in the production of pulses because often, farmers planted pulses to compensate for losses suffered from other crops, he added.
In 2009, when India recorded its last drought, overall rainfall across the country was about 77 per cent of the LPA. In its forecast on June 22, IMD had said the total rainfall across the country during the four-month southwest monsoon would be 96 per cent of the LPA, with a model error margin of +/- four per cent.
Meanwhile, an empowered group of ministers on drought, headed by Agric-ulture Minister Sharad Pawar, on Friday sanctioned Rs 480 crore as immediate relief to Gujarat for rural drinking water. It also increased the number of man days under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Emplo-yment Guarantee Scheme from 100 to 150 per person. Pawar, along with Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh and other central government officials, on Friday held a meeting with Gujarat CM Narendra Modi on the situation in the state due to deficient rains. Earlier, the state government had sought Rs 14,683 crore from the Centre to help fight the drought-like situation in the state.
Yesterday, Bihar had announced its 25 of the 38 districts were hit by drought. Jharkhand has termed the situation in the state “drought-like”. The Rajasthan government has declared five districts—Bikaner, Nagaur, Jodhpur, Barmer and Jaisalmer—drought-hit, while Punjab has demanded a separate financial package for areas hit by low rainfall.
| Agri growth in times of deficient monsoon |
| As India is facing a drought-like situation this year, past experience shows that over the years the country has progress-ively better managed a meteorological drought. IMD declares a drought year, when rainfall deficiency after the end of the four-month southwest monsoon is 10 per cent, and 20-40 per cent of the total area of the country faces drought-like conditions. However, this might not always have an adverse impact on agriculture if the rainfall is sufficient to sustain soil moisture and its distribution is even. Chairman of Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council C Rangarajan said India would see a situation similar to that of 2009-10, when agriculture and allied activities grew by just one per cent. |