After Economic Survey in January, vision document likely in July

Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran is looking to put his stamp on his first Economic Survey, and to that end, the 2022-23 Survey, which will be released on January 31, could be followed by a similar document in July.

This second document will serve as a medium-term vision document for the Indian economy. It is expected to have more of the CEA’s — and his team’s – views on the global economy, the domestic economy, the various challenges and opportunities over the next three-five years, Business Standard has learnt.

The July vision document is also expected to present a road map for what Prime Minister Narendra Modi has termed ‘Amrit Kaal’ — the 25 years leading up to the centenary of India’s Independence.

The January Survey will be akin to the pre-Budget Survey. “It will have the economic outlook and perspective for FY24, and other relevant data and commentary. The July document will look further ahead as an economic road map,” said an official aware of the matter.

Capital vision

• Vision document in July to provide road map for next 3-5 years as well as for ‘Amrit Kaal’
• Document to be updated every year
• July document to contain more of CEA’s assessments and commentary

It is learnt that the Survey could project real gross domestic product growth for FY24 at 6-6.5 per cent.

There was still no clarity on whether the vision document would be called an Economic Survey, a second official said. “It may not even be tabled in Parliament. It will, however, present a medium-term vision of the economy, and the plan is to update it every year, and to also kick-start conversations for the 2024 Union Budget,” the official said.

For the Survey, the CEA and his team will have incomplete data of the current financial year, as is the norm. While the National Statistical Office will release advance estimates for FY23 early in January to help the finance ministry prepare the Budget, the provisional figures for the year will be out only by May 31.

It is similar for other data as well, be it the fiscal deficit, current account deficit, inflation, mobility, consumption, vehicle sales, or others. All of them, for the full year, will be available only after the Survey is tabled in Parliament.

“The July vision document will have the benefit of being able to capture the whole of FY23, and that will serve as the springboard for the economic road map that it will present,” the official said.

Earlier, in 2017, then CEA Arvind Subramanian had presented the Economic Survey in two distinct parts in January and August.

As reported earlier, the Survey could have a broader theme on how India has dealt with two years of the pandemic and the continuing geopolitical tensions, the strengths and weaknesses that have emerged, and the lessons drawn from them.