 "Optimism on agricultural growth this year")
However, analysts say a deeper analysis shows over five per cent farm growth in 2013-14 is within reach.
A low 0.87 per cent increase in kharif grain production was arrived at by comparing the first advance estimate for the current year with the fourth one of 2012-13. The 129.32 million tonnes of foodgrain production in the first advance estimate for the current year was only marginally higher than the 128.2 mt estimated by the fourth round for FY13.
However, if one makes like-to-like comparison, kharif foodgrain is estimated to grow 10 per cent compared to the 117.18 mt calculated by the first advance estimate of FY13.
“We are sticking to our estimate of five-plus per cent agricultural growth in 2013-14,” Ashok Gulati, chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), told Business Standard.
There is usually a five to 11 mt upward revision between the first and fourth advance estimate of kharif production. The first advance estimate is usually issued in August-September and the fourth in April-May. Officials say the anomaly happens because of late reporting of crop size from district authorities and the rudimentary methods of estimation.
“Usually during the first advance estimate stage, the crop is about to mature. Hence, the exact size is difficult to assume, as many factors influence the crop between full maturing and harvesting,” a senior official explained.
“In 2012, the southwest monsoon was seven per cent below normal and kharif grain production was revised upward by a little over 11 mt. Imagine what can happen this year, when the southwest monsoon is almost six per cent above normal across the country,” said another official.
In the eastern states of West Bengal, Odisha and Bihar to some extent, paddy is sown late, around early to middle August. So, its actual impact is not fully captured by the first advance estimate.
In West Bengal, the largest producer of rice, the southwest monsoon in 2013 was just one per cent below normal, while being 18 per cent deficient last year. In Bihar, though, rainfall was 30 per cent below normal between June 1 to September 30, it has been raining strongly since and the overall shortfall has narrowed significantly.
In maize, many in the sector believe the official production estimate of 17.78 mt is conservative and there would be a strong revision in the subsequent estimates. “Maize production is likely to surpass all records this year. We expect a bumper crop, with production possibly crossing 18 mt by the time the ministry comes out with its second advance estimates, as the first estimates are usually very conservative,” said Raju Choksi, vice-president (agri commodities), Anil Nutrients.
Oilseeds and pulses
Besides, good production in pulses and oilseeds will propel farm growth to over five per cent in 2013-14, analysts said According to the first advance estimate for FY14, kharif pulses’ production this year is expected to be 6.01 mt, almost two per cent more than last year's final production estimate.
In 2012-13, the government had first estimated kharif pulses’ production to be 5.26 mt but the final estimate was 5.91 mt. As such, the ouput was shown to rise by only just 1.7 per cent but it would be 14 per cent if the first advance estimates were compared with the first round of calculation last year, experts said.
In oilseeds, the first advance estimate for FY14 pegs output at 23.9 mt, almost 15 per cent more than last year.
"The strong showing in pulses and oilseeds will push up overall growth in agriculture," a senior official said.
A strong belief in the over five per cent growth is, however, not unanimous. CARE Rating’s Madan Sabnavis felt such forecasts were exaggerated, more so after the first advance estimate did not give a comfortable scenario. "I feel agriculture GDP this year would, at best, be 3-3.5 per cent higher, as kharif foodgrainsoutut is not expected to rise by much. Almost 55 per cent of total foodgrain production in India is during the kharif season and this will have a telling impact on overall food production," said Sabnavis.
He also discounted the notion that good pulses and oilseeds production would wipe off the impact of low cereal output. "Pulses and oilseeds have a small share in overall foodgrain production, both in weight and value. Hence, a strong increase in its production will not have that much impact on overall GDP," he said.
Agriculture and allied activities expanded 2.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2013-14 against 2.9 per cent in the same quarter of 2012-13.