The high rainfall deficit in June implies a fall in kharif crop production during 2009-10, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said it its monthly report here.
"The crop production will fall by 4.7 per cent during the year after recording a marginal increase of 0.3 per cent in 2008-09. If the rainfall does not turn out to be normal in July, crop production can decline further," CMIE said.
Foodgrain production is projected to fall by 5.6 per cent during 2009-10. Production of all kharif cereals is likely to decline. Rice output is expected to fall by eight per cent whereas production of coarse cereals will be down by 10.1 per cent.
Pulses production is projected to decline by 1.7 per cent in 2009-10, but mainly due to a fall in production of other pulses.
Non-foodgrain crop production is projected to decline by 3.7 per cent in 2009-10.
CMIE expects oilseeds production to fall by 3.3 per cent due to lower soyabean crop and stagnant groundnut production. Cotton production is likely to fall 8.9 per cent to 22-million bales. Sugarcane production is expected to drop by eight per cent to 266-million tonnes in 2009-10.
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GDP of agriculture and allied sectors has increased consistently since 2003-04. This impressive performance of continuous growth during the past six years is likely to come to an end.
In 2009-10, CMIE expects GDP from agriculture and allied activities to decline by two per cent compared to the 1.6 per cent increase in 2008-09.
Satisfactory monsoon during the past four years had led to favourable outcome on the agricultural crop production front. As the monsoon played truant in June 2009 and its overall progress was also not likely to remain equitable in the remaining part of the season, crop production is projected to fall, CMIE said.
Livestock GDP is expected to increase by four per cent in 2009-10. This sector has been growing at more than three per cent for the past six years with the sector clocking a high growth of 6.6 per cent in 2004-05.
"However, due to the fall in crop production, we expect GDP from agriculture to decline by 2.4 per cent in 2009-10," CMIE said.