With the withdrawal of the monsoon being round the corner, the 13th near-normal monsoon in a row seems to have turned out to be only a mixed blessing.
Most parts of the country, including some of those hit by drought in the past couple of years, have received copious precipitation, generating optimism about brisk post-harvest economic activity. But the rainfall distribution has left much to be desired, dampening the hopes to some extent.
Overall agricultural production seems well set to turn around, clocking a healthy growth. But some of the crucial, economically vibrant, states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and others have witnessed erratic as well as deficient rainfall, somewhat blunting the salubrious impact such a growth would normally have had on the economy.
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Last year, agriculture production had dipped by over six per cent. The foodgrain output alone had declined by a whopping 12.8 million tonne from the previous year's record 209 million tonne. This year, a positive growth is expected to steer the grain output past the previous peak.
The irrigated tracts which generate the market surplus, and hence cash, are expected to throw up bumper harvests, sustaining the feel-good factor in the farm sector. These would also help maintain the price line, especially that of agro-commodities.
Water level in most reservoirs is perceptibly higher than last year's though still marginally lower than the last 10 years' average. The filling of reservoirs is, however, still continuing, brightening prospects of hydel power production in the months to come.
The crop-wise analysis of the current farm situation undertaken by the agriculture ministry every week also presents a mixed picture. While the production prospects of the main foodgrain crop, rice, appear good, those of coarse cereals are uncertain. Healthy standing crops of jowar, bajra and maize in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and many other places might offset the apprehended shortfall in Maharashtra, Karnataka and some other places.
Similar is the situation of pulses. Gujarat and Rajasthan are expected to more than make up for any losses elsewhere. But oilseeds output might not show much recovery due to moisture stress in some of the major producing states.
Most other commercial crops, notably cotton, jute and sugarcane, are in excellent shape and are likely to record output hikes. The horticulture sector is doing well. A record mango harvest has been followed by a good apple crop. Vegetable supplies are comfortable though the price realisation for the producers is said to be relatively lower. But higher volumes are expected to sustain their returns.
Data available with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates that 26 of the country's total 35 meteorological sub-divisions have received normal, or above normal, rainfall till the last week of August. The major areas of concern with regard to deficient rainfall are Rayalseema and Telengana in Andhra Pradesh, north and south interior Karnataka and Marathwada region of Maharashtra.
Having hit the Kerala coast on May 23, almost a week ahead of schedule, the south-west monsoon presented quite a rosy picture in the first half of the four-month season (June to September). The overall precipitation till July-end was 49.04 cm, about 5 cm more than the normal 46.61 cm during this period. This performance was at par or better than that in the past 10 years, according to the IMD.
However, the slippages started in August which usually is the rainiest month of the year. The peninsular region, which had recorded a marginal deficiency of rainfall even in the first half of the season, slipped further behind. Prolonged dry spells were experienced in the central part of the country, notably the important soyabean belt in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, as also in north-western region. Some of the eastern states, including Orissa and Bihar, suffered from floods.
The agricultural experts are, however, still keeping their fingers crossed. If all goes well between now and the crop harvest, which seems quite likely because rainfall activity usually picks up during the receding phase of the monsoon, the overall outlook can improve substantially, it is maintained.