A survey of nearly ten Vidhan Sabha constituencies of Varanasi, Phoolpur and Chail, brought out the fact that the Congress is now left with only upper caste supporters, who most probably would shift their vote to the BJP, except in cases where the BSP or the Congress fields upper caste candidates. But even if this happens, a major chunk of these upper caste votes may shift to the BJP.
This may not necessarily due to the alliance with the BSP, but may also be part of the continuing centralisation of the upper castes around the BJP.
The same is the case with supporters of the Congress (T), who may not support all the candidates of the United Front, although backward caste candidates have a better chance of getting their support. In Gyanpur Vidhan Sabha constituency, the upper castes are certain that the Congress supporters would not vote for the BSP.
Another factor which should cause concern for the BSP-Congress alliance is the lack of interest shown by Muslims. Very few of them turned up at the Azamgarh rally. They see their main opponent in the BJP and have decided, right from the start, to vote for the Samajwadi Party. For most members of the community, supporting Mulay-am is an act of faith rather than a tactical ploy. For a large number of them, the SP has become their party. Hence their vote may be transferable to the other constituents of the UF, though there are chances that ite may split and 15 to 25 per cent may go to the Congress-BSP alliance.