Annual survey to gauge extent of hiring and unemployment in country: NITI

Panagariya says economy is expected to grow at 7.5% in FY18 and reach 8% before Modi's term ends

Amid attack on the government over alleged jobless growth, NITI Aayog vice-chairman Arvind Panagariya on Friday said the government has decided to conduct an annual household survey at both rural and urban areas to arrive at a correct picture of the number of the employed and unemployed in the country. The survey would be updated on a quarterly basis, he said. Meanwhile, NITI will come out with a new energy policy soon, said its officials. It is likely to favour unbundling of Coal India.

As for the survey, it is being conducted by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) and preliminary work had started from April. 

Apart from that, inputs are being sought from the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation and the National Pension System for estimates of employment in the formal sector. NSSO currently comes out with the employment survey once in five years. 

Panagariya said existing surveys, which include quarterly employment surveys done by the Labour Bureau, are insufficient as they are not based on any random sample survey and till 2015 covered only 11 states. 

"The findings of the labour survey can't be extrapolated to say that jobs haven't been created in the economy as the data are inadequate," Panagariya said while addressing a press conference on three years of NITI Aayog. 

He said the labour survey covered only 30 million employees but the total labour force in the country, including agriculture labourers, is over 470 million. "The debate on jobs so far has happened in a vacuum, in the absence of adequate supportive data," Panagariya said.

The Labour Bureau has, in fact, also improved its quarterly survey on employment. Earlier, it used to take eight sectors - textiles including apparels, leather, metals, automobiles, gems and jewellery, transport, information technology/business process outsourcing (IT/BPO), and handloom/powerloom.  It still takes eight sectors but these are much wider - manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, education, health, accommodation and restaurants, and IT/BPO. 

According to the latest survey, the rate of increase in employment in eight key sectors fell in October-December 2016, with addition of only 32,000 workers as against 77,000 workers in July-September 2016.

On the question of big layoffs in the IT sector, the NITI vice-chairman said that according to his information around 600,000 net jobs have been created in the IT sector in the last three years. "In a dynamic economy, job creation and destruction is a continuous process as people move out to higher technological levels," Panagariya said.

When asked about recent allegations by RSS's (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's) affiliates Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh and Swadeshi Jagran Manch that the Aayog has become immune to Indian ethos and labour problems in the country, Panagariya said all its recommendations in the three-year action agenda are meant to generate big jobs in the country. 

On the country's economic health, Panagariya said the economy is expected to grow 7.5 per cent in 2017-18 and thereafter will reach eight per cent before the term of Narendra Modi government ends in 2019. "In the subsequent years, according to my expectation, the economy will remain over eight per cent for some time," Panagariya said.

The economic growth declined to at least four-quarter low of 6.1 per cent in April-March and three-year low of 7.1 per cent for the entire 2016-17.

Panagariya also said that the NITI Aayog, after suggesting a road map for the development of Uttar Pradesh, is now trying to work with the new Congress government of Punjab on a road map for the state's development.