Sliding queries from India and strong Australian dollar will lead to up to 10 per cent drop in the number of international university students later next year in Australia, according to a report.
"If the drop in enquires during the last quarter continues, then the drop in enrolments in second semester for 2010 could be double-digit," enquiries manager Hobsons Asia-Pacific Hobson's Managing Director David Harrington was quoted saying in The Australian.
"First semester enrolments, which is the largest intake, will be less affected by the recent drop in enquiries due to the 12-month pipeline. This we expect to be flat" he added.
Harrington's company represents 14 universities, including three leading research-based Group of Eight universities. His comments follow after their overseas student enquiries fell 15 per cent overall in the latest key quarter, the report said.
They were still tracking down during October, and enrolments among highly sought-after full fee-paying postgraduate students would be most affected, a Hobson's spokesman said.
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Indian market "is most price-sensitive so there's two factors moving against India", Harrington said, adding that despite everything, Australian education remained a good option for foreign students.
Meanwhile, there is continuing demand for Australian university education, especially from the other key market of China, enquiries from which were up 15 per cent, it noted.
Earlier, another largest recruiter, IDP, also anticipated drop in Indian students enrolments. Chief executive Tony Pollock mentioned that he was worried about enrolment numbers from India being "quite soft".
"We are looking at modest growth next year across portfolios. Higher education will be up and vocational education will be up, but we will see a lot less students from India," Pollock added. He said most affected would be all the "single-purpose colleges" which were cashing on permanent residency driven student visa. "It will be a very tough period for them because most of their students are drawn from India. It will be a bleak winter for them," he added.
However, Pollock said the $15 billion education sector was likely to welcome a fall in Indian student numbers, where they were concentrated at the bottom end of the private vocational education market.
"I think it's a quite sensible re-adjustment of Australia's education offerings. So what Australia is providing is more closely aligned to the interests of the students themselves and Australian education," he said.