A day after the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council lowered the economic growth projection for this fiscal to 8.2%, the Chief Economic Advisor in the Finance Ministry Kaushik Basu today said GDP could still reach last year's number of 8.5%.
"From 7.8% to 8.5% roughly we are seeing people putting up forecast. My own sympathies are still at the upper range of this," Basu told reportere here.
In its Economic Outlook for 2011-12 released yesterday, the PMEAC had lowered the economic growth projection for the current fiscal to 8.2% from 9% earlier, citing the uncertain global outlook, high domestic inflation and subdued industrial performance.
The country's economy had expanded by 8.5% in 2010-11.
Basu said the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to see a big rebound in the last quarter of 2011-12, thus neutralising any slowdown that may happen in the first few months.
He, however, admitted that a 9% growth would not be possible.
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"On the whole my expectation won't be 9% as we had forecasted earlier. But I continue to be on the upper end of the forecast that I am seeing all around. I am more optimistic than many forecasters and I personally do expect that the last quarter would see the biggest rebound," he said.
The Finance Ministry will also conduct an interim review of the economic growth in September.
"This year we are going to do one interim one. Hopefully, by mid-September or even early September we will try to bring out something," Basu said.
He added that the mid-year review scheduled for November will take place in time despite the interim review next month.
"The first quarter data will be out on August 30. Soon after that we will do what is best in our capacity and put out some forecast.
"We normally would have done it only in November during the mid-year review. This year there is so much of anguish and thinking going on that we thought we are doing to do our own exercise," Basu said.