Basu told Karat: CPI(M) to be biggest loser in mid-term poll

Last month, when the tension over the Indo-US civil nuclear deal was at its peak, veteran CPI(M) leader Jyoti Basu telephoned party boss Prakash Karat and told him that he did not know how other parties would fare in a mid-term poll, but he did know one thing: that the CPI(M) would be the biggest loser.

That was a reflection of the mood of the 'Bengal lobby' of the CPI(M) that wanted to avoid early elections at any cost and tried to induce the organisation to rethink its stand on the nuclear agreement rather than forcing an election. The Rizwanur Rehman case and turbulent Nandigram events added to the mood.

The Left's plan was to portray the nuclear endeavour of the Congress, as having sold its soul to US President George Bush, and use this to garner more Muslim votes.

But the death of Rizwanur Rehman in suspicious circumstances created a strongly anti-CPI(M) mood. Rehman's death is being inquired into by the CBI but it has badly affected the credibility of the state government, which has been seen as being complicit in Rehman's death because he married the daughter of a CPI(M)-friendly industrialist for which he was harassed by the Kolkata police.

Rehman's death has had a highly adverse impact among the minority voters and even found resonance in the Jawaharlal Nehru University students' union elections in Delhi where it was one of the main campaign agenda for anti-CPI(M) forces. The result: after a span of 18 years, the SFI, the student's wing of the CPI(M), could not win any of the top seats in the union.

But more than the Rehman case, it is the Nandigram issue boiling for the last nine months that compelled Karat to recalibrate the Left's position on the nuclear deal.

Karat was categorically told by the Bengal leaders that they needed time to put the West Bengal CPI(M) house in order. After the recent series of firing on protestors last week, Karat was left with no choice but to agree to some concessions.

The CPI(M) boss also had reports that the three Left allies "" CPI, Forward Bloc and RSP, were perturbed and cracks in Left unity at the grassroots level might affect the Left's prospects in a few seats.

For the Congress, Nandigram was a lever in the nuclear negotiations. With the CPI(M) on the backfoot over the Nandigram episode, the Congress managers saw an opportunity to extract flexibility from the Left.

A top UPA manager told Business Standard:, "We can get some leverage from this situation. They (the Left) cannot afford an election at this stage." Finally, this pincer pressure made Karat take a step back. But he has given this discount on his own terms.