BJP banks on Muslims in western UP

MANDATE 2004/ Party hopes split of secular votes will work in its favour

Having lost its base substantially in Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership has been moving tactically in the state from the day general elections were announced.

The party's proposed blitz in the Muslim-predominant western Uttar Pradesh just before the last two phases of the elections indicates a reality that is bizarre, but true: it is to the undecided Muslim voter that the BJP is now turning to for salvation, in the hope that if they don't vote for the BJP, at least they can be prevented from voting against it.

Party strategists are also pinning their hopes on the fact that the division of Muslim votes "" between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party "" will ultimately benefit the BJP.

The first round of polls in eastern Uttar Pradesh has belied the BJP's expectations. However, BJP leaders feel that this factor will work in the last two phases.

But the BJP is also banking on strategy. This became evident in the manner in which the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) decided not to move the court to effect arrest of BSP leader Mayawati on the Taj corridor controversy.

Highly placed sources in the government said that it was a strange coincidence that Mayawati broke off the possibility of ties with the Congress barely a few hours before the CBI decided not to move the court to seek arrest of Mayawati.

Though the Congress leadership cried foul over the issue of manipulating the investigative agency for political ends, the end result was in favour of the BJP- the BSP and the Congress could not come together.

BJP sources admit that the internal surveys conducted by the party had also indicated that the party would be relegated to background if Kalyan Singh was not inducted into the BJP's fold. Singh may not have helped the BJP to turn the tide in its favour but he has certainly arrested the drift of traditional BJP supporters in parts of west UP.

But what appears to be the master-strategy is the subtle message put across by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee that he was not averse to aligning with Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP) in the post-poll scenario.

Even Samajwadi Party leaders admit that Vajpayee's statement triggered a great deal of confusion among Muslims who form the SP's support base.

But Vajpayee was not along in creating this confusion. NDA Convener George Fernandes whose ties with Yadav could be traced to socialist politics also pointed out that it would be in the realm of possibility for Mulayam Singh Yadav to join the NDA after the elections.

BJP sources admit that all these statements were intended to avert the possibility of consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of the SP which has already forged a power alliance of Jats, Rajputs and Yadavs all over the state.

BJP strategists are confident that their strategy of creating division in the Opposition's ranks will yield them good political dividends at the end of the elections.