Would India be able to feed a billion mouths? This was a relevant, albeit sceptically asked, question when the billion population mark was still some distance away. The query seems to have lost its sting by the time the country is actually touching the mark. For, not only are these billion stomachs being filled, the diet is better than anticipated earlier and the silos are still brimming over with more than 30 million tonnes of foodgrains.
Indeed, the current production level of above 200 million tonnes already exceeds the normative grain requirement for food, feed and the food processing industry estimated at 194 million tonnes for the terminal year of the 9th plan (2002) on the basis of the nutritional standards recommended by the National Institute of Nutrition. Even assuming lifestyle changes and better economic access to food as a result of anticipated GDP growth of 6 to 7 per cent, the food requirement will be about 214.25 million tonnes, which also seems within reach.
In fact, changes in eating preferences due to rising incomes and better availability of diverse foodstuffs have been amply visible in the past quarter century. The per capita growth in consumption of cereals has been only around 1.08 per cent, against 2.3 per cent in pulses, 6.6 per cent in both vegetables and milk items and as much as 10.84 per cent in fruits. The consumption of meat, fish and eggs, too, is estimated to have risen by a handsome 4.6 per cent. Since this qualitative change in demand has been met largely through indigenous production, it can be seen as an indication that the farm sector is keeping pace with the changing times.
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The annual compound output growth rate in the post-green revolution period has been far higher for non-food crops (3.36 per cent) than for foodgrains (2.66 per cent). All the allied sectors of agriculture like horticulture, animal husbandry, poultry and fisheries, have outpaced crop farming in terms of growth. India has emerged as the world's largest producer of milk and second largest of fruits and vegetables. The output of poultry products has shown a whopping annual growth of over 17 per cent in the past decade.
All this may inspire confidence in the farm sector's ability to support a billion or more heads but some legitimate concerns remain. Much of the increase in production is attributable to the expansion of irrigation which has also brought in its wake problems of degradation of land and water resources. In any case, there is a limit to which irrigation can be extended. Even after exploiting all possible sources, more than half of the cropped area is still depend on rainfall and the incre