All indications are that it might end up in a dead heat. As the BJP paraded Independent MP Harish Nagpal from Amroha as someone who had been persuaded to vote against the government, Congress President Sonia Gandhi made a personal call to former telecom minister Dayanidhi Maran to vote for the government he had once been part of.
His personal equation with Gandhi was emphasized rather than his estrangement with the first family of the DMK, who are prominent allies of the government.
The trust vote has been a boon for Members of Parliament in jail. There were reports that at least three jailbird MPs had been given permission by respective state high courts to vote on Tuesday's trust motion.
These MPs include RJD MPs Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav and Mohammad Shahabuddin as well as Lok Jan Shakti party MP Suraj Bhan Singh. This will come as a relief for the government as all three have said they will vote for the treasury benches.
The Opposition too has been at the receiving end of this court leniency, with rebel SP MPs Ateeq Ahmad and Afzal Ansari also set to vote.
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Babulal Kataria, under suspension from the BJP for facilitating illegal immigration from India and currently in jail, has had his suspension revoked and might vote as well. BJP's rebel Gujarat MP Somabhai Patel may also be taken back into the party fold due to the exigencies of the trust vote.
If the Opposition cites the example of National Conference, which has now become a fence-sitter because of the preferential treatment meted out to PDP's Mehbooba Mufti then the government points to the decision made by the Shiromani Akali Dal to not issue a whip to its MPs to vote against the government.
As both sides scramble around for every single vote, Independent MPs are enjoying their time under the sun.