BS Number Wise: In India's coal crisis, a question about nuclear power

India plans 10 atomic power facilities, joining some other nations in reviewing an alternative fuel that is cheaper and cleaner

India’s coal-based power plants produce more than half of its electricity, but the fuel is polluting and the logistics to transport it quickly in peak demand daunting. As the country considers other fuels, can nuclear energy be a long-term solution?

The government said in March that it will next year begin work in Karnataka on a new nuclear power reactor, moving ahead on plans announced earlier for ten such facilities.

Britain and Belgium, too, are reviewing nuclear power for energy security. The rethink reverses a decade-long global slowdown after Japan’s Fukushima atomic plant accident in 2011.

Global nuclear power generation rose 1.8 per cent between 2011 and 2020: a period when India increased its nuclear power generation by 38.4 per cent to 44.6 terawatt-hours. India’s share of global nuclear power generation increased to its highest in 50 years in 2020 as seen in chart 1.

Yet nuclear energy forms 1.7 per cent of India’s total electricity generation. Even if it triples by 2030, nuclear will still account for less than 5 per cent of overall electricity produced, according to Debasish Mishra, partner at Deloitte India. Nuclear power’s capital cost is high, so tariffs would also increase proportionately. Global nuclear technology providers are reluctant to come in because of unsettled liability issues, he said. Indian law is seen exposing international providers to potentially unlimited liability in case of accidents. India is betting on renewable energy, according to Mishra.

Nuclear power plants made using indigenous technology can be set up for Rs 15 crore to Rs 20 crore per megawatt, or half the global cost, said Anil Kakodkar, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission. India’s uranium reserves — some recently discovered — are five times more than earlier estimates. The country now also finds it easier to source nuclear fuel globally, according to Kakodkar. India had faced supply difficulties since it conducted its first nuclear test in 1974.

Grid stability could become an issue as renewables become common, said Kakodkar. This is because renewable electricity generation can vary with wind speeds or weather. A steady source of electricity generation, like coal-based power, provides stability even as renewable generation varies. A push to reduce carbon emissions could see nuclear energy replacing coal in that role, said Kakodkar. Nuclear power has lower emissions comparable with renewables like solar (see chart 2).

“...lower battery costs could help solve the intermittence of the renewable resources,” Mishra said. Battery costs have been coming down sharply in recent years (see chart 3).

While scaling up nuclear power generation capabilities is said to have a time frame measured in decades, raising India to the level of a developed country will require extracting energy from all available sources, according to Kakodkar.

“I believe nuclear is inevitable,” he said.

The average Indian has less energy available to her than people elsewhere do. The average energy consumption for a person in Brazil is 2.4 times higher than India, 4.4 times higher in China, 5.8 times higher in Japan, and 11.4 times higher in the US.

Nuclear power’s capacity to help solve India’s energy poverty would be watched closely.