Experts differ on why and on what this means; want data on migration, development parameters.
More of the countryside is turning into towns and more village folk are moving to cities. The tempo of urbanisation has picked up to a three-decade high, say demographers on the 2011 census data on urbanisation released recently.
The data reveals a jump which is close to the highest-ever increase in urbanisation that took place between 1971 and 1981, says P M Kulkarni, demographer, with Jawaharlal Nehru University here. Urbanisation went up 3.35 points over the past 10 years; there was a similar leap of 3.43 points in 1971-81, says Kulkarni.
| POPULATION PICTURE | |||
| THE BREAK-UP IN MILLIONS | |||
| 2001 | 2011 | Difference | |
| India | 1,029 | ||
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Increase
“What we are seeing is that the tempo has picked up. Urbanisation is a continuous process. But there was a (comparative) lull (in pace) after 1981. Now it has suddenly begun moving up fast,” he says. The increase in urbanisation in the previous census in 2001 was a mere 2.1 points. Demographers attribute the latest decadal increase to economic growth, besides the classification of many areas as ‘census towns’, based on density of population and other factors.
The census document itself attributes the upward trend in urbanisation to “the sharp decline in growth rate in rural areas, while the growth rate in urban areas remains about the same”.
Kulkarni, however, maintains the census towns have played a big role in the new numbers. Census towns are rural areas reclassified as towns by the census on the basis of their satisfying certain factors, such as a population of at least 5,000 and over 75 per cent engaging in non-agricultural activities, says Kulkarni.
In the latest data, while statutory towns or those which are officially towns with municipalities, etc, have increased from 3,799 in the previous census to 4,041a rise of only 242 such places, the number of census towns went up from 1,362 in 2001 to 3,894 in this census.
In the case of Kerala the census towns have been a major factor in ensuring its urbanisation proportion was up by 22 points, says Kulkarni. Bigger states such as Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu showed comparatively less increase in urbanisation. In Maharashtra, there has been a moderate increase of less than three points, while in Andhra Pradesh and Haryana the increase was six points.
ISSUES & IMPLICATIONS
The high rates of urbanisation have raised concern about the implications on food production. According to Kulkarni, it is not a concern at all. He says China has always been urbanising rapidly and yet its food production has been much higher than India, thanks to higher yields. In India, though close to 60 per cent of the population are still associated in food production, yields have been low and agriculture contributes just 17 per cent of gross domestic product, implying poverty conditions for growers, says Kulkarni.
However Ashish Bose considered a pioneer among demographers in India, says urbanisation data is meaningless unless studied with data on agricultural land shrinkage. “We should not get stuck in mere data. It should be used for development,” he says. “If urbanisation is at the cost of food production, then that should inform policies. On the whole, if you see the kind of conflicts between people in the villages and industrial interests like Posco, this kind of urbanisation is a threat to the people.”
These experts say the data on urbanisation is incomplete without data on migration. Migration can happen from urban to urban, rural to urban, urban to rural and rural to rural. All four have to be analysed before an accurate correct picture can be derived on what has been happening to the population in the past decade, says Bose.
He also has reservations about the criterion used by the census for identification of urban areas. They need just a population of 5,000 to declare a place urban. That is ridiculous, he says. It’s also why there was such a dramatic number for Kerala, showing a 98 per cent growth in urbanisation, he says.
Bose says more factors should be included to consider a place not just urban but developed. He questions Kerala’s quality of life, for instance, saying he finds the figures on alcohol consumption, depression and suicides alarming.