CCS meet today; anxiety on strategy before Ayodhya verdict.
The removal of Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is one of several options being contemplated by a Centre that is seriously concerned about the escalating crisis in the state and keenly aware it must soon take decisive action to stem the downward slide.
As Eid celebrations in Srinagar turned violent yesterday, Abdullah’s presence in Delhi to be with his family was seen as yet another example of the young chief minister’s inability to handle the mounting confrontation with a new generation of militants back home in the valley, a significantly disturbed population and the political opposition.
The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meets in the capital tomorrow to take a hard look at the situation. This comes as stringent curfew was reimposed across the Kashmir valley in the wake of the torching of buildings housing the electricity and criminal investigation departments in Srinagar. The thinking is that a decision to staunch the Kashmir crisis should take place well before the September 24 verdict on the Ayodhya issue, which is likely to inflame communal passions one way or another.
It is in the context of this informal Ayodhya deadline that the CCS will debate several scenarios, that were discussed by the Congress party’s core committee on Friday. Congress president Sonia Gandhi was believed to have underscored the importance of the Ayodhya judgement, even as she reflected the Centre’s rising concern that the ongoing crisis was the worst to have gripped the state since the onset of militancy in 1989-90.
No easy choices
Conversations with top-level government sources painted a grim picture : If Omar Abdullah was, indeed, going to be removed, they said, the question of the alternatives was equally complex.
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Should it be his father, Farooq Abdullah, a former chief minister of the state and at present Union minister for renewable energy? Or Ghulam Nabi Azad, also a former CM and presently Union health minister or Abdul Rahim Rather, the current J&K finance minister and veteran National Conference politician? Would the removal of young Omar, whose impassioned speech as a secular Muslim in the last Lok Sabha created a wave of nationwide approval, mean a loss of face both for the National Conference as well as its ally, the Congress party? The sources conceded the possibility of a senior Congressman like Azad replacing Omar was remote, because the PM not only strongly felt it was the NC that had received the mandate of the people during the elections in December 2008, but also that it was not wise at this stage to have a Congressman at the helm in Kashmir.
“For the Congress to be seen to be running Jammu & Kashmir at this time is not politically wise,” the sources said, adding, “At least for the moment, there should be another political buffer between the Congress-led government at the Centre and the one in the state.”
The question of reverting to Farooq Abdullah is also on the anvil, although it was felt that it would be wise for the Congress to stay away from the intricacies of family politics. As for seating Rather on the throne, the sources said he was widely known in the Kashmir valley for his “impeccable integrity and especially for his crisis-management skills”, necessary at a time like this.
However, the question of whether it would be prudent to replace one or another Abdullah with another politician is also being debated.
Central rule option
The CCS, the sources said, would also debate the imposition of President’s Rule in the state as one option to break the back of the militancy and reintroduce the mantra of development as well as governance to the exhausted population.
Asked if Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, was fanning the flames of the agitation, the government sources said, “The ISI may have contributed to the crisis, but the truth is that the kindling was there already on the ground. Outside forces only picked it up and lit a match to it.”
The government sources were, however, sure that the Kashmir crisis required serious attention not only from the Congress but across the political spectrum. The possibility of sending an all-party delegation to Kashmir is also on the cards.
The sources emphasised that both the Prime Minister as well as the Congress president were so keenly sensitised to the Kashmir crisis that they were willing to give Omar Abdullah any time that he wanted. But until this evening, sources from Srinagar said, Abdullah had not returned to Srinagar from Delhi to take charge.
They conceded that the proposed partial removal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from parts of the valley like Srinagar and Ganderbal was “superficial”, as the Army had no presence in these parts anyway. It might be possible to expand the removal of the AFSPA to other parts, including Budgam and Kathua, but admitted that that would not help resolve the situation.
On the question of starting autonomy talks, the officials noted Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had repeatedly stated he was willing to talk to any group or political faction in the state on any subject. But they were unwilling to be drawn into any commitment on the implementation of the recommendations of the round table on this very issue, set up by the PM in his first term. While one government source felt talking about autonomy at this sensitive stage would open up a Pandora’s Box of other ailments, another felt it was important to point to the “abysmal levels of governance that are contributing to the crisis”.