Chhattisgarh ripe for UP-style social engineering

The social engineering that pushed the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to power in Uttar Pradesh is expected to see its next phase in Chhattisgarh""Dalit plus a chunk of the tribal votes.

The BSP is now designing strategy to sway the tribals, who form 34 per cent of the electorate.

"The BSP is working on a plan to develop a new dalit-tribal equation and will come out with spectacular results in the next state polls (due in November 2008)," BSP state president Dauram Ratnakar told Business Standard.

Politically, Chhattisgarh is the most important state for the BSP after Uttar Pradesh. The tribal-dominated state was a dream destination of power for BSP founder Kanshi Ram. After floating BSP, Kanshi Ram contested his first Lok Sabha election from Janjgir-Champa, a scheduled caste-dominated constituency in the state.

With 4.4 per cent vote share, the BSP has already registered its presence in the state. The party enjoys good support in the scheduled caste pockets in Bilaspur, Raipur, Raigarh, Durg, Rajnandgaon and Janjgir districts. Its support in the tribal belts is, however, negligible.

In 1998, the party had three MLAs from the areas which went to Chhattisgarh when the state was formed. Though the number dropped to two when Chhattisgarh went to polls for the first time in 2003, the party's vote share remained intact.

In the 2003 elections, the BSP played spoilsport for both the Congress and the BJP, the former being hit the worst. The party has developed a good base among the Satnami Samaj""about 9 per cent of the total 12 per cent scheduled caste voters in the state""that has traditionally voted for the Congress.

In the last Assembly elections, the BSP hit the Congress' chances in at least eight seats. In 1998, the Congress won seven SC seats out of ten. In 2003, it could retain only four.

Now, with the BSP looking for tribal votes, the ruling BJP has all the reasons to be wary. For, the BJP bagged power in Chhattisgarh only because of support from the tribals. Out of the 34 seats reserved for scheduled tribes, the BJP won in 25.

And it will not be a surprise if Mayawati's blue elephant changes the political scene. After all, tribals, who had traditionally been Congress supporters in Chhattisgarh, switched over to the BJP in the last elections and made all the difference.

2003 elections, the Congress could retain only nine tribals seats, while it had 26 in the previous Assembly.