Coal demand to peak in India by 2030, will back up renewables: NITI report

IEA study supports trend, says India will lead demand growth for the fuel in the world

Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the government declared ambitious targets for being a Net Zero economy in 50 years and 500 Gw of renewable energy capacity addition.

NITI Aayog, the central government’s think tank, said in a report coal demand will be in the range of 1192-1325 million tonne by 2030, led by usage from the electricity sector. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its annual coal report said, stronger economic growth and increasing electrification will drive demand growth of 4 per cent per year.

Coal-based utility electricity generation capacity in India is likely “to peak at about 250 GW” by the end of this decade or immediately thereafter, said the NITI report. It added that coal-based utility electricity generation in India will slow down, and is likely to peak a few years later, i.e. later 2040.

IEA said iron and steel production use coal and there are not many technologies to replace the fuel immediately. “India’s growing appetite for coal is set to add 130 million tonnes (Mt) to coal demand between 2021 and 2024. Continued expansion of India’s economy is expected during 2022-2024, with annual average GDP growth of 7.4 per cent, fuelled at least partially by coal. We forecast coal consumption to increase at an average annual rate of 3.9 per cent, to reach 1185 Mt in 2024,” IEA’s Coal 2021 report said.

It said India’s push to domestic coal mining through both Coal India and auction of coal blocks to private companies, coal usage in India will increase as it plateaus in other parts of the world, including China. It also said India is set to overtake China as the world’s largest metallurgical coal importer.

The NITI report said while coal-based thermal power generation will grow in absolute terms for the next decade, its share in the total power generation mix of the country will decline to a 50-55 per cent (from current 72 per cent) in the next 10 years. This, it said would be due to the changing capacity mix with increasing share of renewable energy.

On November 1, at Glasgow global climate summit COP26, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced India will be a Net Zero economy by 2070 and will have 500 Gw of renewable energy by 2040.

This paper reported had reported, this announcement is unlikely to put pressure on coal. Senior government officials told Business Standard, Net Zero decision actually provides certainty to investors in coal – both state owned Coal India Limited (CIL) and private captive and commercial coal miners.

“The 1 billion tonne coal production target of CIL will get logged into the economy in this decade. For another 20-30 years the future of coal is secure in India. The mines awarded now have a clear business case to run for their lifetime,” said an official requesting anonymity.

Even IEA noted in its report, the pledges to reach net zero emissions made by many countries, including China and India, should have very strong implications for coal – “but these are not yet visible in our near-term forecast, reflecting the major gap between ambitions and action.”

NITI Aayog cautioned against the target versus achievement of renewable energy in India. “India is unlikely to achieve its target of 100 GW of solar and 60 GW of wind capacity by 2022. Given the current “surplus capacity” in the system, distribution utilities are reluctant to sign fresh power purchase agreements, given their already distressed financial situation. Investments are likely to be constrained following the COVD-19 pandemic. For all these reasons, the development of the renewables sector needs to be tracked carefully.”

“They should also be very cautious of adding new coal capacity beyond 2030 as it risks locking in resources. India must enhance investments in the deployment of clean coal technologies throughout the coal value chain. Government power utilities must show the way by investing in the deployment of advanced clean coal technologies,” it said.