Congress scion Rahul Gandhi, party president Sonia Gandhi and coal minister and U P election campaign committee in-charge Sriprakash Jaiswal have lately asserted the party would ‘go it alone’ in Uttar Pradesh. “The party is in coalition only with the poor,” Rahul Gandhi had recently said, adding it was not interested in allying with any other party. Quick to realise that the likely scenario of a Samajwadi Party(SP)-Congress tie-up after the polls was leaving voters confused, and dampening its prospects, he swung into a damage-control mode.
The turnaround has been baffling to most. At stake are the all-crucial Muslim community votes, which comprise 18% of the population. As the community is known to side with the party with the greatest ‘winnability’ factor, the likely scenario of the Congress throwing in its hat with the SP, has worked against the party, said a senior Congress leader. Muslims are generally considered to be a vote bank of the SP. But this time, the community has not backed any single political party and could even align with the Congress.
On the eve of the first phase of polls, Rahul Gandhi made it clear there would be no alliance with any party, as he was in UP to bring about change. “The strategy is simple: We would have a coalition with the poor and common people, not with any party,” he said in Varanasi. This, according to party insiders, is mere political rhetoric.
Addressing a rally in Unnao, Sonia Gandhi backed Rahul. “Congress is not contesting these elections to forge a coalition with any party, but for forming its government.” Accusing the SP, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party of forming alliances with each other in the past 22 years, she said these had ruined the state.
Coal minister Sriprakash Jaiswal, a three-time member of parliament in the Lok Sabha from Kanpur, on Thursday said, “The Congress will be forming the government and will get a clear majority.”
The Congress needed to send this message to instill confidence among voters about its serious intentions in the state. With a dismal performance in the 2007 polls (the party got only 22 seats), Congress insiders know despite their good performance in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, at best they may improve their tally to about a 100 seats. The halfway mark would require 200 + seats and to be a part of the government, the Congress would have to form an alliance with another party, most likely the SP. This prospect, Congress insiders say, has permeated down to the voters, and realising the dangers, the party has resorted to double talk.
Admitted a senior party leader, “In a post-poll scenario, if the SP gets 130 odd seats and the Congress 80 odd, the two parties could come together and form a coalition government on the grounds that the ‘popular mandate’ was the two parties should work together. We will then be seen as respecting the wishes of the electorate.”
Confronted with a ‘do or die’ electoral campaign in UP, the Congress has resorted to double talk to ensure an improved mandate in 2012.