Indicating turnaround in the industrial growth, the eight core sectors grew by a seven-month high of 5.1% in September more than double of 2.3% in August, backed by low base advantage and a rapid expansion in coal, cement and refinery products, official data showed today.
Crude oil and natural gas production contracted in September. Before this, it was only in February, 2012 that these industries grew at higher pace-- 6.9%. In September last year, the eight core industries expanded by 2.5%.
Eight crucial sectors expanded by 3.5% in the first six months of the current fiscal against 5% in the corresponding period of last fiscal.
Coal output expanded 21.4% in September 2012, against a contraction of 18.2% in September 2011. Low base effect and higher dispatches due to fuel supply agreement by Coal India Ltd with power companies are cited as reasons for this substantial growth by analysts.
Coal output grew 11% in August. Cement output recorded a growth of 13.4% due to the pickup in construction activity in September, after showing a 0.1% contraction in August. “Cement is a seasonal component, the production goes down during monsoon as construction activity slows down”, said an analyst.
Crude oil and natural gas continued to remain in the contractionary zone. Crude oil showed negative growth for the fourth consecutive month at 1.7% versus 0.6% in August. Refinery products grew a robust 11.4% in September, up from 8.4% in August.
Natural Gas output contracted for over a year now has been contracting for over a year now, and recorded a negative growth of 14.8% in September 2012, compared to 13.8% contraction in August.
Electricity generation growth has slowed down in the past three months. It grew just 3.7% in September, albeit up from 1.9% in August.
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After contracting for five consecutive months, fertilizers showed a positive growth of 5.7% in September.
Eight core industries has a 38% weight in the index of industrial production, which is also likely show an uptick from September onwards as the low base effect comes in. IIP grew 2.7% in August, which was also a kind of slight recovery, given low numbers in the previous months of this fiscal.
India's economy grew 5.5% in the first quarter of the current fiscal, slightly up from 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011-12. The second quarter of the economy is also expected to be lackluster. However, the second half is expected to be a little better, according to analysts assessment.