Delayed monsoon makes Gujarat farmers jittery

State runs risk of missing double-digit growth target

Delayed rainfall and its impact on agricultural production and allied industries may hamper Gujarat's target of achieving a double-digit growth in the current financial year.

"Gujarat will be worst affected by the delayed rainfall this year as agricultural productivity is bound to go down. Almost all crops will be affected and we will request the government to take immediate measures," said Bipin Desai, convenor, Gujarat Khedut Sangarsh Samiti (GKSS), an apex body of farmers in the state.

Gujarat has targeted a double-digit growth in 2004-2005 because of the expected bumper agricultural crop during the year.

"Delayed monsoon is a major cause of worry to us. We will be losing over Rs 10 crore if we do not receive rains this week," said Rajiv Patel, convener, Khedut Mandal.

Last year Gujarat had recorded a growth of 15 per cent compared with the country's over all growth of around 8 per cent, which is almost double. But this year monsoon seems to disappoint the farmers and will affect the state's gross domestic product (GDP) as well.

The Indian Meteorological Department has forecast that the four-month south-west monsoon will be normal. But this seems not to be true in the case of Gujarat.

So far the state has recorded a rainfall of 149 millimeter only, which is 33 per cent lower than the average rainfall of 222 millimeter.

Last year the state had received a rainfall of 1,048 mili metre as compared with a national average of 861 mili metre, which was 22 per cent higher.

However, R K Bakliwal, director, meteorological department for Gujarat, said, "A low pressure belt is being created near the Orissa coast at the Bay of Bengal and if it gets intensified, it may bring monsoon to the state in the next one week."

Last year, a bumper agricultural crop had created excess production which also led to a fall in prices of agricultural commodities.

Gujarat had witnessed a 16 per cent dip in agriculture production in fiscal year 2002-2003 due to a fall in both cultivated area and average yield. This was against a three per cent dip in the country's agricultural production in that year.

"While taking 2002-2003 as the base year, the state has experienced an agricultural growth of around 70 per cent as compared with the country's overall agricultural growth of around 12 per cent in the financial year 2003-2004 due to the good monsoon in almost all parts of the state. But this year, taking 2003-2004 as the base year, the state is expected to have a negative growth in agricultural, if the state does not receive rains immediately," said Ravindra Dholakia, professor of Economics at Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIM-A).

Last year, the state ministry for agricultural had asked the IIM-A to suggest measures to manage a bumper crop situation.

This year the professors of IIM-A will be meeting in early August this year to discuss the issues relating to the agricultural growth of the state.