The seventh ministerial conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is scheduled next week (November 30-December 2) in Geneva. The meet comes four years after the Hong Kong conference, which failed to arrive at a consensus on key issues.
The conference this year will be different, as it will not be a negotiating session. The ministers will meet for a review of the WTO functioning and state of play in the negotiations under the Doha Development Round. The expectations are so low that WTO Director General Pascal Lamy merely asked the ministers to send a number of strong signals to the world with respect to the entire WTO waterfront of issues — from monitoring and surveillance to disputes, accessions, aid for trade, technical assistance and international governance. He has also called for setting a positive and constructive tone for international co-operation ahead of the Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen.
The meeting of trade ministers of WTO member countries comes at a time when the attitudes towards globalization and freer trade are more positive in developing countries than in more advanced countries, thanks to different degrees of impact of the global financial crisis on international trade and economic growth.
The Doha Development Round was launched immediately after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, with the words of US President “either you are with us or you are against us” reverberating in the ears of the delegates. The developing countries were not ready for a new round of negotiations but they could not resist the US pressure. Predictably, the subsequent Cancun and Hong Kong trade talks failed. Eight years later, the US administration is in a much weaker position to influence either the other countries or its own interest groups at home.
Even so, convergence of views has been found in a number of areas during the eight-year negotiating period, as Lamy points out repeatedly. The contentious issues that hold up further progress include details of how a safeguard to protect the farmers in poor countries from a surge in imports might work in actual practice. The questions of how far tariffs could rise if imports surge, and how a special safeguard mechanism can be made simple and straightforward for poor countries to be able to use when necessary have defied an agreement, with US and India especially taking rigid stances.
The other contentious issues include ending preferential treatment that rich countries give to their former colonies for import of sensitive tropical products, like bananas. Ending subsidies for cotton growers in US is another intractable issue. Besides, hair-splitting on technicalities related to market access for non-agriculture goods and services, non-tariff barriers, rules on anti-dumping and subsidies, special and differential treatment to poorer countries, negotiating modalities, bio-diversity, environment and dispute settlement, also elude convergence of views.
Frustrated by lack of progress, Lamy had suspended negotiations for a while but in July 2008, the trade ministers agreed to conclude the Doha Development Round by 2010. Next week’s ministerial may not advance that cause in any significant way, as the recession-hit rich countries are more pre-occupied with revival packages and unemployment issues at home. If the global economy recovers by next year, the Doha Development Round may also see some progress, if not its conclusion.
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