Drought to impact output of rabi crops

Near total lack of post-monsoon rainfall in the country's major north-western and central agricultural belt has put rabi production prospects in jeopardy.

The real concern is over the likely output of wheat which has been stagnating for several years, necessitating costly imports. The production of other crops, notably oilseeds like mustard and rapeseed, pulses like gram, and coarse cereals, may also suffer for want of needed soil moisture.

Since the end of the monsoon in September, there has hardly been any rainfall in key agricultural states like Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The rainfall deficiency varies from 100 per cent in Rajasthan to 85 per cent in east Uttar Pradesh.

The main wheat surplus regions of Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh have experienced 98 per cent rainfall deficiency till November-end.

Some isolated rainfall has occurred in parts of Punjab and Haryana in the past two days due to the western disturbance, but this is largely in the irrigated areas. The rainfed tracts of Haryana are still reeling under prolonged dry spell.

The situation in Madhya Pradesh is no better with most part of the state getting 97 per cent less than normal rainfall between October 1 and November 30. Similar is the case of Maharashtra, reporting a rainfall deficiency of 94 per cent. This has adversely affected the sowing of most rabi crops.

As a result, the sowing of wheat is lagging behind last year's corresponding level by 19 per cent. The planting of rabi oilseeds and pulse crops is trailing by nearly 14 per cent and that of coarse cereals by 7 per cent, according to agriculture ministry sources.

Though it is premature to put a figure to the likely wheat harvest this season, agriculture experts are keeping their fingers crossed. The agriculture ministry, on the other hand, seems confident of achieving at least the last year's level of output (74.9 million tonnes), if not more.

The ministry's optimism is based on the fact that while the shortfall in cropped acreage is largely in the unirrigated tracts where the productivity is, in any case, generally low, the growing conditions elsewhere have been satisfactory. There has been no constraint in the availability of irrigation water, the ministry sources maintain.

Besides, wheat has been planted well in time in high productivity states like Punjab and Haryana, which augers well for good yields, Krishi Bhawan sources point out.

Among the irrigated tracts, wheat sowing has been delayed only in west Uttar Pradesh where sugarcane has not vacated the fields due to belated start of crushing by the sugar mills. But, temperature in many of these areas is still conducive for wheat planting, it is pointed out.

Analysts, however, do not share this optimism. They fear that the loss in the output of oilseeds and pulses could be even greater than that in wheat. This is attributed by them to the price factor. The substantial increase in the procurement price of wheat is likely to prompt some of the oilseed and pulse growers to divert their lands to wheat in case adequate moisture becomes available in time for crop sowing.

The latest information available with the agriculture ministry till November 30 indicates major shortfalls in the area covered under different crops. Wheat has been sown only on 146 lakh hectares, against 180 lakh hectares seeded last year till this time.

Though the sowing is still in progress, the chances of making up this loss would remain dim unless it rains without further loss of time, especially in areas like eastern Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where a sizable part of wheat acreage is rainfed.

The area planted with rabi oilseeds is estimated at about 70 lakh hectares, against last year's over 81 lakh hectares, and that with pulses at about 91.5 lakh hectares, against nearly 94 lakh hectares last year. The area that has already come under rabi coarse cereals is reckoned at 54 lakh hectares, compared to 58 lakh hectares by this November-end last year.

According to the India Meteorological Department, the total rainfall deficiency in the whole country between October 1 and November 28 was 35 per cent. The actual rainfall was just 69.3 mm, against the normal of 106.8 mm for this period.

On the whole, about 17 of the country's total 36 meteorological subdivisions, falling in the northern, western and central parts of the country, have experienced scanty rainfall, resulting in poor soil moisture levels.