Is there a correlation between the economic performance of states and the chances of incumbent governments coming back to power or getting dislodged?
A close look at the growth rate of gross state domestic product (GSDP) of different states, where elections have taken place in recent times, throws up interesting facts.
A comparison of the growth figures presented in the mid-term appraisal of the eleventh five-year plan with the poll results clearly shows that performance on the growth rate front does seem to have a direct bearing on political fortunes.
Take the cases of Bihar and Tamil Nadu.
| FOR A BETTER ECONOMIC FUTURE STATES’ PERFORMANCE IN TERMS OF ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF GROSS STATE DOMESTIC PRODUCT | ||||
| 10th Plan (2002-07) | 11th Plan (2007-12) | |||
| State | Achievement | Expectation | 2007-08 | 2008-09 |
| Bihar | 8.7 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 16.6 |
| Tamil Nadu | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Kerala | 8.9 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 7.0 |
| Assam | 5.3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 6.2 |
| West Bengal | 6.3 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 |
| Gujarat | 10.9 | 11.2 | 12.8 | NA |
| Delhi | 10.2 | NA | ||
(Growth rate in %)
Bihar’s growth rate of state domestic product expected during the 11th Plan (2007-12) has been pegged at 7.6 per cent. The state achieved 8.8 per cent in 2007-8 and 16.6 per cent in 2008-09. The Nitish Kumar-led NDA government retained power with a resounding victory.
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On the other hand, Tamil Nadu’s target was substantially lower in 2007-08 and 2008-09 fixed for the 11th Plan. It went down drastically from 8.5 per cent achieved during the 10th Plan (2002-07) to 4.4 per cent in 2007-08 and 4.5 per cent in 2008-9. The incumbent chief minister K Karunanidhi and his party DMK lost the election on Friday to J Jayalalithaa by a huge margin. This is despite the fact that many of the election pundits had predicted a close fight between the two.
In Kerala, the gross state domestic product growth rate expectation has been fixed at 9.5 per cent. As against the 10th Plan period achievement of 8.9 per cent, the state clocked 9.8 per cent in 2007-08 and then went down to 7 per cent in 2008-09. The incumbent LDF government under V S Achutanandan lost in a close fight to the Congress-led UDF.
In Assam, the GSDP growth rate during the 10th Plan was 5.3 per cent and the expectation for the 11th Plan is 6.5 per cent. The state registered a growth rate of 5.7 per cent in 2007-08 and then 6.2 per cent in 2008-09. The Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government has succeeded in retaining power for the third time in a row. The GSDP growth rate in the state during the 8th and 9th Plan periods stood at 2.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively.
Though West Bengal has been a different case with a strong anti-incumbency factor working against the Left’s 34-year rule in the state, economic performance seems to have played a role. The 10th Plan growth rate of GSDP in the state was 6.3 per cent and the expectation for the 11th Plan has been 9.7 per cent. The growth figure was 7.7 per cent in 2007-08 and 6.3 per cent in 2008-09. The state had witnessed a growth rate of 6.3 per cent and 6.5 per cent during the 8th and 9th Plan periods respectively. Mamata Banerjee has dislodged the over three-decade-old Left rule in the state emphatically.
The Gujarat and Delhi election results also support the relationship between economic performance and poll results. In both the states, incumbent governments have succeeded in retaining power. Gujarat’s GSDP growth rate during 10th Plan was 10.9 per cent. It rose to 12.8 per cent in 2007-08. The incumbent chief minister Narendra Modi retained the state.
In Delhi also, the GSDP growth rate in the 10th Plan period was 10.2 per cent, which went up to 12.5 per cent in 2007-8. The Sheila Dikshit-led Congress government won elections in the state for the third time in succession.