Economy on mend, biz cycle indicator up 5.1% in April

Recovery to remain a gradual process

The Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) for Indian economy showed 5.1 year on year growth in April 2013, showing signs of continued recovery.

BluFin, the Financial Information and Content Company, today in a statement said the BCI current score for April rose to 165.9 on the falling global prices for crude oil, Gold and Copper.

The rising domestic production of intermediate goods like Aluminum also gave a positive push. 

BCI continues to indicate an expansion indicating that the Indian economy is growing at a faster rate than the previous year, it said.

BCI provides “real time” information on the state of the business cycle in the Indian economy.

The key negative contributors to the BCI in April were slowing revenue generation from rail freight, domestic air travel and agricultural exports.

The year-on-year growth rate of BCI noted in the previous month (March 2013) was 4.7%. Historically, the BCI has grown by 7% year-on-year, on an average.

The current economic trends indicate sustainable growth in the quarters ahead. The BCI has been indicating an economic revival since July 2012, although the projected recovery path is sluggish in the near term.

The first quarter of 2013-14 should see sluggish growth. Growth should pick up by Q2 of 2013-14 with a quarterly growth of 6.2-6.5%, BluFin said.