The Indian economy is estimated to grow by 5.7 per cent during 2001-02 as against the earlier projection of six per cent. According to the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE), the revision follows the slower growth in industry during the first half of this fiscal, sharp decline in exports and concerns following the fall in the capital goods index.
CMIE had recently revised the industrial sector growth to 3.5 per cent against its earlier projection of 4.5 per cent.
The industrial sector is expected to recover in the second half of the year, after having recorded a growth of only 2.3 per cent in the first half.
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The consumer goods segment, which grew by 16 per cent in the second quarter of 2001-02 as against 6.5-7 per cent growth recorded in the preceding two quarters, however, is expected to perform well.
The index is expected to rise at an even faster pace during the second half of the year, said a CMIE release.
The index for capital goods fell by six per cent in the first quarter and then by 11 per cent in the second quarter of 2001-02.
The decline reflected in the index of industrial production (IIP) estimates are sharper than was expected.
As against official projections of a 12 per cent rise in exports in 2001-02, CMIE had predicted zero growth.
The trend so far is negative and there are no chances of the year returning positive growth in exports, the release said.
CMIE's other sectoral forecasts remain unchanged. The forecast for the agricultural sector as a whole remains 6.5 per cent and that for growth in the services sector stays at 6.6 per cent.
Of this, trade, transport and communication is projected to grow by seven per cent; finance, real estate and insurance, 6.5 per cent and other services, six per cent.