El Niño scare: Govt prepares emergency plans for 500 districts

El Niño might impact rain in 2014 but not as severely as in 2009

The government, on Wednesday, swung into action following reports that El Niño might disrupt the monsoon in 2014, by giving shape to contingency plans for 500 districts.

It also asked states to be prepared for insufficient rainfall, even as impact of El Niño might not be as severe as in 2009, when India had faced the worst drought in 30 years.

El Niño is a weather phenomenon that disturbs the formation of clouds due to warm  waters off western coast  of south America. It emerges after a gap of every three-seven years and affects monsoon rain in India.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said contingency plans were ready for 500 districts and would be made operational in the event  of low rainfall during monsoon.

He was talking to reporters on the sidelines of annual Kharif conference.   

The plans include close monitoring of the situation, keeping ready sufficient quantities of short-duration varieties of major crops, issuing location-specific advisories and taking the help of research institutes.  

Addressing the conference, Union Agriculture Commissioner S Sandhu urged state governments to be prepared for any shortfall in rain.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology and the US Climate Prediction Center have warned of increased chances of the return of the El Niño weather pattern that can trigger drought, hitting production of key crops such as rice, wheat and sugar cane.

However, Pawar said,   “Our Met Department is seriously concentrating on this subject. This type of situation, we have seen in 2009 as well. But whatever assessment made by experts about this issue, they said it would not be that severe which will impact overall production and productivity. But still, we are keeping a close watch (on it).  “

El Niño had been responsible for causing below normal rain three times in the last decade — 2002, 2004 and 2009 — in India.

Monsoon rain was 22 per cent below normal in 2002, while it was 17 per cent below normal in 2004.

In 2009, when India faced one of the severest droughts in recent years, rain in the four-month season was 27 per cent below normal. Food grains production in 2009-10 dropped to around 218.11 million tonnes, almost seven per cent less than the previous year’s. The year 2012 was also an El Niño year, which witnessed seven per cent below normal rainfall.

Last month, India’s leading private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, had predicted monsoon in 2014 could have a high chance of being   “below normal” due to the emergence of El Niño. Skymet said 2014 monsoon will most probably not experience a La-Nina year (this phenomena correlates well with excess rainfall). Therefore, there is little chance of excess rain.

The India Meteorological Department classifies monsoon rain between 96 and 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) as   “normal”, while that between 105 and 110 per cent of the LPA is considered   “above normal”. More than 110 per cent of  LPA is  excess rainfall. Also, rain between 90 and 94 per cent of the LPA is considered   “below normal, “while rain below 90 per cent of LPA is   “drought”.