Even as hundreds of people have been evacuated from Joshimath, a Himalayan town slowly sinking, questions have been raised on years of unchecked construction, hydropower projects, and the lack of a proper drainage system. Local anger has been directed at a government-owned power company, whose ongoing hydropower project, they allege, is tunnelling through the fragile ecosystem.
While some experts believe the situation is still salvageable, there is another Joshimath-like crisis waiting to happen.
As part of the ‘holistic development’ of the Great Nicobar Island, the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways is working towards the development of a mega International Container Transhipment Port at Galathea Bay of Great Nicobar Island of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Off the eastern coast, Great Nicobar Island is a tropical oasis in the Andaman Sea. This modest biogeographical marvel - home to 650 species of flora and 330 species of fauna - of 910 square (sq.) kilometers (km) is the last of the 572 islands that make up the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago.
Last year, large swathes of land and coastal area, including portions of the Great Nicobar Biosphere Reserve and Galathea Bay, were stripped of their protected status to make way for a massive construction project proposed by the Andaman and Nicobar Islands Integrated Development Corporation.
Environmentalists and researchers believe any development could not only lead to reversing the impact of India’s efforts towards adaptation to climate change, but will also make the islands more vulnerable to Joshimath-like disasters.
Both Joshimath and the Great Nicobar come under the high-risk seismic zone V category.
“In terms of natural disasters, the threat is similar to Joshimath, primarily from earthquakes and tsunamis, given the island’s fine ecological balance,” says Manish Chandi, a research scholar specialising in the interface of communities and natural environment in the Nicobar Islands.
More than the strategic importance of the island, it is its geographical location that is of critical importance, considering it is located in the Arc of Fire - a major area in the basin of the Pacific Ocean where 452 volcanoes (more than 75 per cent of the world’s active and dormant volcanoes) exist.
As Centre invites expressions of interest, work on the construction of a port, an international airport, a power plant, and a township spread over more than 160 sq. km of land at an estimated cost of Rs 72,000 crore, will likely resume.
Over 1 million trees are likely to be felled and displace local tribes and species.
Of the total 160 sq. km of land, around 85 sq. km falls under a ‘Tribal reserved area’ and is inhabited by the Nicobarese and Shompen tribes. The project will involve the diversion of around 130.75 sq. km of lush forest land.
Ecologists say the diversion will not solve the problem that will come due to project development and claim that the environmental impact assessment (EIA) does not have adequate mitigation or conservation planning norms for indigenous species of flora and fauna.
“In the EIA, there is no adequate mention of how to save the endemic Nicobar megapode (incubator birds or mound-builders), found only in a few places in Nicobar. The port is to be constructed at the nesting site of leatherback turtles,” says Neha Sinha, a conservation biologist. While raising concerns over the mitigation planning, Sinha asks how will they (leatherback turtles) be saved from stress.
Although the government claims it will do compensatory aforestation in other states like Haryana and Madhya Pradesh, ecologists say the move is just eyewash.
“Nicobar forests are primary evergreen forests and Haryana or any other state cannot have the flora and fauna of these islands because of unique climatic conditions they need to thrive in,” says Sinha.
Environmental researchers also question the viability of creating large-scale plantation projects in the Aravalli hills of Haryana - a region with dry soil and shorter rain spells.
Haryana has a forest cover of just 3.63 per cent — the lowest in the country — according to the Forest Survey of India 2021. Its forest cover has also remained steady over the past decade and a half. It was 1,604 sq. km in 2005, and 1,603 sq. km in 2021. However, the Haryana government announced its plan for a 10,000-acre jungle safari park in the Aravallis, which is claimed as a compensatory effort by the government for the Nicorbar forest loss.
Kanchi Kohli, senior researcher at the Centre for Policy Research, says both the deforestation in Nicobar and the recreational tourism in Haryana were attempts to monetise forests, “instead of compensating for ecological loss”.
After the draft environmental impact assessment report in December 2021, researchers and non-governmental organisations raised nearly 400 concerns related to ecology, the rights of the indigenous communities, the tectonic volatility, and the disaster vulnerability of the island.
Little action has been taken on it, observe experts.
Sharad Lele, a senior researcher with the Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and Environment, while calling the government’s move a continuation of the Centre’s ‘development-at-any-cost’ policy, says, “The move not only rides roughshod over the rights of Adivasis of Nicobar, it is also utterly bereft of any ecological understanding.”
“Forest destruction will be accompanied by destruction of reefs, pollution, and complete demographic shift in the composition of the population of these islands, leading to cultural genocide as well,” adds Lele. He is also a former member of the environment ministry and tribal ministry committee on the Forest Rights Act.
The project will not only upset the ecological balance by removing the indigenous species but will also lead to an increase in the population of the ecologically-sensitive island from the current 8,000 to more than 350,000 in the next three decades.
Infrastructure players focused on sustainability, too, have raised concerns over the delicate nature of the project.
“Such infra projects need to adopt alternative technologies like the use of geosynthetics, optimisation of stones used in rip-rap, use of alternative materials for breakwater structures and study the effect of construction by simulation. Adoption of sustainable approaches and solutions throughout the entire lifecycle of a project can mitigate natural and anthropogenic hazards, respecting the environment, enhancing people’s safety, and improving their lives," says Vikramjiet Roy, managing director, Maccaferri India.
He adds, “Rampant infrastructure development without a plan can make the fragile ecosystem even more vulnerable to the effects of climate change, which acts as a force multiplier. Incidents like Joshimath are a grave reminder of the need for adopting focused sustainable development techniques.”
As the government moves ahead with the project, ecologists feel a better protocol and scientific mitigation plan could minimise the impact.
“If the project is going to go ahead, the government should call environmentalists and ecologists to work on a scientific mitigation and wildlife conservation plan. This just cannot be an afterthought,” says Sinha.
Lele minces no words. He says there is no way to ‘minimise’ impact without calling off the project, which he feels is unlikely.