As the first week of ongoing climate change negotiations in Copenhagen draws to a close, attention will partly be deflected south to Brussels, where European Union leaders are meeting on Thursday and Friday to thrash out differences on climate policy, ahead of a final push to secure a global agreement on the issue.
Some are hoping the EU summit may result in steps to help counter the uproar created among developing countries by circulation of the so-called Danish accord and refute accusations that Brussels is pandering to the US, to the detriment of the rest of the world. Most experts, however, say expectations for any major change in the established European position should be low.
At centre stage during the two-day EU summit will be the twin issues of financing and emissions cuts. Although the EU was the first major bloc to agree to contribute to a global pot of money to help developing countries fight the effects of climate change, its 27 members have been unable to bring precise figures to the table ahead of the Copenhagen meet.
The summit, the last to be held under the Swedish presidency, will thus focus in part on announcing a short-term financial package for developing countries to fast-track their efforts to adapt to global warming.
At their October meeting, EU leaders acknowledged that global financing of about ¤5-7 billion annually would be needed in 2010-2013 to launch climate adaptation projects in the developing world. The European Commission has called on member-states to contribute up to ¤2 bn a year of this amount. Earlier this week, Sweden pledged ¤750 million towards the three-year target, while Britain has already offered a $1.3 bn contribution.
The final figure the EU comes up with will largely depend on what France and Germany agree to. The contributions will be voluntary, since Poland and other Central and East European countries have made it clear they do not consider themselves in an economic position to pay.
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Figures for medium and longer term financing (the European Commission estimates an annual ¤100 billion need by 2020) are even more contentious and are unlikely to be announced during the summit.
Besides the issue of funds, EU leaders will also consider their final position regarding emissions cuts. The bloc has already pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent by 2020, compared with 1990 levels. A higher target of 30 percent has been mooted in the event of similar, ambitious pledges made by other key players.
Environmental groups and political parties are, however, urging Brussels to make a unilateral commitment of 30 per cent cuts to give a fillip to the Copenhagen talks. They say the 20 per cent goal is too easy and too little.
Jason Anderson, Head of EU Climate and Energy Policy at WWF, said the “present offer of 20 per cent would actually mean slowing down the current pace of emission reductions in Europe”. The WWF has pointed to several loopholes in the EU’s climate target, including the fact that the carbon offsets Europe currently buys severely curtails the amount of reductions it makes domestically.
Another report released on Wednesday by climate consultancy Ecofys added to the chorus of criticism, saying it was “clear” that the EU’s claim to be the leader in international climate policy “does not stand up to analysis”.
The report stated that much of the EU’s emission reductions to date have occurred “due to coincidence”, rather than being the result of deliberate climate policies. The 20 per cent reduction pledge, the report said, was far from enough to limit the increase in global temperatures to below two degrees Centigrade.
Introducing the report at the European Parliament, Dutch Greens MEP Bas Eickhout said its findings “explode the myth that emerging economies are not willing to contribute to efforts to mitigate climate change”.
He said the report showed that emerging economies such as Brazil, India and China were doing more than industrialised countries to meet their share of the effort for limiting warming.
But notwithstanding these findings, analysts say it is improbable that EU leaders will agree to sharper emissions cuts. Not only are Poland and other Eastern European countries firmly opposed to further cuts, but European businesses have also warned that the EU must wait until other major powers take comparable measures so as to avoid jeopardising their competitiveness.
An offer by US President Barack Obama to cut emissions by about three per cent compared with 1990 levels “cannot be considered an ‘equivalent’ effort justifying an EU move to a 30 per cent reduction”, Jürgen Thumann, president of a powerful lobby group, Business Europe, argued in a letter to the EU presidency this week.
Moreover, it is also feared that any announcements of deeper cuts or more financing by the EU might alienate the Americans, by putting the kind of pressure on the US that will irk Washington at a time when it has tentatively joined efforts to curb global warming.