Exim Bank pegs exports to grow around 8% in Dec after two months of decline

For Q3 as a whole, it sees outbound shipment declining by 1.77%

Exim Bank has projected exports to grow by 7.75 per cent in December after two months of continuous decline. 

It pegged exports to stand at $29.19 billion in December this year against $27.09 billion in the same month last year. 

For the third quarter of the current financial year as a whole, Exim Bank forecast the outbound shipment to decline 1.77 per cent at $77.6 billion from $79 billion a year ago. 

It attributed this contraction to the steepest and continued fall in oil exports witnessed since March, 2020. 

Basically, Exim Bank made projections for the third quarter on the basis of which the export numbers for December were derived.  

It, however, projected non-oil exports to grow moderately by 0.3 per cent during the third quarter of the current financial year at $68.3 billion after three consecutive quarters of contraction. 

Viswanath Jandhyala, economist at Exim Bank, said the quarterly forecasts are based on the Bank’s export leading index (ELI) model.  The model gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

 

Exports fell sharper at 8.7 per cent in November than 5.1 per cent in October, as major overseas markets continued to witness muted demand due to Covid-induced lockdowns. Exports stood at $23.52 billion in November compared to $25.77 billion in the same month of the last year.

As such, the September revival in exports proved a blip with outbound shipments contracting for the second straight month in November. 

When exports rose by 6 per cent in September after a decline in six straight months, it looked as if they had started recovering. In fact, exports had risen only in February and September in the current calendar year so far.  

Major exchange earners showed de-growth in November. For instance, petroleum products recorded a decline of 59.73 per cent, engineering goods fell by 8.12 per cent. Even labour intensive items such as leather and its products shrank by 29.8 per cent, readymade garments by two per cent.

On the other hand, pharmaceuticals exports rose 11.15 per cent, gems and jewellery by 4.1 per cent and electronics goods by 0.97 per cent.