Experts predict upto 12 % rain in Gujarat

Few forecasters believe showers to wet soil by first week of June

There were in all 182 forecasters who were to submit their version to the publication.

Seventy two percent forecasts from 80 forecasters speculated 10 per cent-12 per cent rain this year, keeping 16 per cent as a base value in traditional style of forecasting monsoon.

Out of the 182 forecasters, 16 per cent forecasters were of opinion that this year monsoon would be less by 10 per cent and 16 forecasters said that this year monsoon would be good by 12 per cent.

Out of 182 forecasters 52 per cent forecasters speculated heavy rains between Mid-July and first week of August this year, whereas 38 per cent forecasters speculated scarce rainfall from second week of August till September this year, only 7 per cent of them speculated rainfall in month of May, this year.

As far as rain sufficient for cultivation is concerned, 44 per cent forecasters opine that adequate showers between June 10 and 15, while 45 per cent held the opinion of showers between June 15 and 25 and rest 11 per cent said such showers would wet the soil in the first week of June or last week of June.

According to 48 per cent forecasters the monsoon will be over between September 25 and October 5, 20 per cent term it between October 5 and 15, whereas, 32 per cent are of opinion it would be over after October 15.

The seminar witnessed technical brain-storming sessions from weather forecasters, astrologers, ayurveda experts, astronomers and traditional experts who forecast rain based on the 'Bhadli Vakyas'. Bhadli Vakyas are the stanza derived on probability of rains by Poet Bhadli.

While speaking to Business Standard, Mayur Mehta, Editor, Commodity World said, "The seminar has been taking place at Agriculture University since last 13 years but this is for the first time that we thought of making it open to the audience and allow even farmers to participate in it."

With speculation of weather on proposal in India for which online trading in terms of weather forecasting and bullion is in row, we feel that now slowly and gradually, weather is becoming a trading commodity too, he said.

The panel of experts included Ambalal Patel, Jai Prakash Madhak, Dhansukh Shah, Mukesh Thakar, Pravin Vora, Sajanbha Sumaniya, Hasmukh Nimavat, Bhupendra Dholakiya, Ashok Patel, Sanjay Bhut, Jasmat Surani and Dhirajlal Thummar.

Prakash Mehta, a commodity trader from Ahmedabad, said, "Being into the trade, which is by and large based on the forecasting of monsoon, such seminars do help a lot for bridging gap of sharing such a versatile intelligence."

A book comprising of the forecasts made by the forecasters and published by Commodity World, was also unveiled in this seminar in the presence of the State Agriculture Minister Bhupendrasinh Chudasama and eminent columnist Kanti Bhatt.