Export targets to be reworked

RUN-UP TO THE FOREIGN TRADE POLICY/ UPA govt eyes bigger share of global trade pie

The government is planning to rework its export target in the Foreign Trade Policy and will strive to achieve 1.5-2 per cent share of world trade by 2009. To achieve the target, India's exports need to grow at over 20 per cent annually.

At present, India contributes a mere 0.8 per cent to global trade. The medium-term export strategy for 2002-07 had set a target of 1 per cent share of global trade by 2006-07.

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government has, however, decided to rework the numbers, as well as terminate the earlier government's Exim Policy for 2002-07.

The maiden Foreign Trade Policy is to be unveiled by Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath on Tuesday.

The UPA government has already set the export target for the current fiscal at 16 per cent, which will raise India's foreign exchange earnings from merchandise exports to $73.35 billion from around $63 billion in 2003-04.

According to estimates by the Directorate-General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), to corner 1 per cent of the global trade pie, exports need to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.25 per cent over the next three years. The CAGR for the last five years is estimated at 13.84 per cent.

For a 1.5 per cent share of world exports by 2006-07, India's exports would have to have a CAGR of 30.7 per cent for three years, including the current fiscal. To grab 2 per cent of the global trade sweepstakes, the CAGR is estimated at 44 per cent till 2006-07.

If India is to acquire a 2 per cent share of world exports by 2009-10, the CAGR for the next six years has to be 24.22 per cent. In value terms, this translates into exports of $227.22 billion by 2009-10. In short, it means India has to quadruple its exports over seven years, starting 2004-05.

If India can sustain a CAGR of 20 per cent for three years, it will account for 1.16 per cent of global exports by 2006-07.

Officials said in order to achieve the higher growth target, the policy was focusing on sectors like agriculture, where items like processed food and floriculture are targeted to achieve export growth rates of 20 and 14 per cent, respectively.

Other sectors like gems and jewellery, leather and textiles are also being highlighted in the policy in view of the higher export target.

The commerce ministry has set a 26 per cent export growth target for the gems and jewellery sector, while the leather sector is targeted to achieve an export growth of 10 per cent. Similarly, textiles is expected to grow at 15 per cent.