Exporters eye 15% growth in 2004-05

Indian exporters are targeting a growth of 12-15 per cent in the current fiscal on the back of a 17 per cent growth registered last year.

Among the major export councils, only the gems and jewellery and the leather export bodies are projecting growth rates of around 10 per cent.

Commerce ministry officials indicated that the government, which would shortly set the target for the current fiscal based on inputs from the commodity boards and export promotion councils (EPC), would target a 12 per cent growth, in line with the medium-term export strategy.

India's exports in 2003-04 exceeded the $60 billion target. India's medium-term export strategy projects an annual growth of 12 per cent growth till 2006-07 for the country to achieve a share of 1 per cent in global merchandise trade.

Gems & Jewellery EPC chairman Sanjay Kothari said 10 per cent growth would translate into exports of around $13.2 billion.

"The prices of raw materials hold the key. Global demand is picking up and oil prices are rising. So it is better to make a conservative estimate," he said.

Similarly, the Council for Leather Exports has forecast a moderate 9 per cent growth to $2.18 billion despite large international buyers like Wal Mart and J C Penney planning to source from India.

"There are 36-37 such buyers but we have a capacity constraint with total production estimated at around $4 billion.

At least, 10 large exporters are trying to ramp up production but this will take at least a year, and so we have decided to project lower growth this year," a Council for Leather Exports functionary said.

The textile ministry is yet to set the target for the current fiscal. Officials, however, expect a 10-15 per cent growth over the $13.5 billion export of textile and handicrafts in 2003-04.

"In the garments segment, for instance, the growth rate could be as high as 25-30 per cent in the last quarter of the current fiscal since export quotas would cease to exist then. But how much we stand to gain is still not clear," an official said.

The Engineering Export Promotion Council, has forecast a 20 per cent growth to $12 billion, compared with $10 billion in 2003-04.

It is forecasting a 17.5 per cent growth for iron steel exports "" projected to touch $2.58 billion "" due to the government's recent policy, which discourages steel exports to keep domestic prices in check.

In the case of product segments like capital goods, the export promotion council is targeting a growth of 22 per cent, while consumer goods exports are also projected to rise 19-20 per cent to around $2.5 billion.

Chemical exports are also expected to rise 12-15 per cent, a commerce ministry official said.