Exports growth slows, rise 36.4% in September

India’s merchandise exports grew 36.4 per cent in September, reaching $24.8 billion from $18.2 bn a year before. However, this is a much lower rise than the previous two months. In July, exports grew 81.8 per cent; in August, these rose 44.2 per cent.

Imports in September rose 17.2 per cent to $34.6 bn, against $29.5 bn in the same month last year.

The cumulative growth rate of exports during April-September this year was 52.1 per cent, at $160 bn compared to $105.2 bn in the corresponding period of 2010-11, according to data released on Tuesday by the ministry of commerce and industry.

Analysts expect significant moderation in growth of exports and imports with the slowing of demand, particularly from European markets, which account for a fifth of the country’s total exports. “Both exports and imports, especially non-oil imports, are likely to moderate due to the crisis in the euro zone and other markets. We expect growth rates in exports to come down significantly by the end of this fiscal,” said Deepali Bhargava, chief economist, Espirito Santo Securities. Export growth is set to slow further in the coming months, confirms a report from Moody’s Analytics.

Total imports during April-September were $233.5 bn, up 32.4 per cent from the $176.4 bn in the same period of 2010-11. Import of crude oil during this period was $70.3 bn, about 42 per cent higher than the $49.4 bn last year, while non-oil imports reached $163.2 bn from the $126.9 bn during April-September 2010-11.

“Export growth rates might come down to single digits, as the Asian markets are also witnessing a demand slowdown, besides the developed markets. The decline by the end of this year is going to be sharper,” said D K Joshi, chief economist, Crisil India.

Union Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar had earlier said exports would increase but the period of high growth rates was gone and there is bound to deceleration towards the end of the financial year.

Oil imports in September reached $9.2 bn, an increase of 14.6 per cent from the $8 bn in the same month last year. Import of non-oil items in the month grew 18.2 per cent to reach $25.4 bn.

The balance of trade in September was a negative $9.8 bn. For April-September, it was a negative $73.5 bn from the $71.2 bn in the same period of 2010-2011.

“The situation on the trade deficit is alarming. It may touch $150 bn by the end of 2011-12, which is of much concern for all of us,” said Ramu S Deora, president, Federation of Indian Export Organisations.