The impressive export performance of 34.92 per cent in December 2002 is partly because of the low base in December 2001.
The statistical aberration means the steep hike should be viewed with caution. While the government is of the view that the $ 49 billion export target for the year can be met if the growth momentum is maintained, such steep growth rates may not be possible in the coming months.
Commerce ministry officials said the exports growth for the financial year is expected to be over 12 per cent.
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Exports in December 2002 were valued at Rs 21,031.49 crore, and in value terms, it was an above average performance as compared to the other months in 2002-03.
However, December 2001 was a bad month for exports. Hit by the slowdown in the world economy and also the decline in exports to the United States on account of the terrorist attacks, the value of exports in the month was only Rs 15,574.31 crore, one of the worst monthly export performances in the April-December 2001-02 period. The year-on-year growth in December 2001 was in fact negative.
Subir Gokarn, chief economist, Crisil, said the higher export growth in December was on account of a spurt in demand from the European Union.
Exports have done well so far, because consumer spending in the US has remained steady and the Indian Rupee has depreciated against other currencies.
However, he adds that,