Extended monsoon good for kharif output

MONOSOON WATCH

The monsoon withdrew today from western Rajasthan and parts of Punjab, some 20 days behind schedule.

At the same time, it is turning vigorous in the eastern states, as well as the coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala. The extension of the monsoon season is deemed favourable for kharif crops, though the agriculture ministry's preliminary crop outlook report points to a below normal harvest.

However, neither agriculture experts nor the markets have taken the Krishi Bhawan's projections seriously.

The first advance production estimates of the current kharif, released by the agriculture ministry on September 15, put the foodgrain output at 105.25 million tonnes, down nearly 4.5 million tonnes, from last kharif's 109.7 million tonne.

The output of most other crops, barring pulses and sugarcane, is also reckoned to drop. However, the ministry said these estimates were sure to be revised as the season advanced. The commodity markets have remained largely unaffected by these numbers.

Farm experts, as also commodity associations, said the output of most kharif crops would be normal or above normal. The crops which may clock a decline are coarse cereals, barring maize, and oilseeds, excepting soyabean.

At the same time, the outlook can change in case of either the failure of the post-monsoon rainfall, notably October rains, or a major outbreak of pests and diseases which, indeed, cannot be ruled out because the humid conditions, favourable for pests, are continuing unabated.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon withdrawal line today passed through Ferozepur in Punjab and Churu, Jodhpur and Barmer in west Rajasthan. Normally, it begins receding from the western tip of Rajasthan by September 1.

However, a couple of low pressure areas are hovering over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, which are expected to cause another spell of heavy rainfall in states like West Bengal, Jharkhand, north Orissa, north Chhattisgarh, and coastal Andhra Pradesh on the east coast and Konkan and Goa, coastal Karnataka, and Kerala on the west coast.

Significantly, the rainfall is forecast to increase in central India, east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar between September 22 and 24, while it will decrease in Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, and Jharkhand.

The agriculturally important north-western plains, as also the adjoining hilly region, are likely to receive scattered rainfall in the next few days due to an approaching western disturbance.

A comparison of the distribution of monsoon rainfall in the past few years indicates that the number of sub-divisions receiving excess rainfall has been the maximum (7 out of a total 36) this season.

At the same time, the sub-divisions recording deficient rainfall are as many as 10. The cumulative rainfall in the country as a whole is, of course, the best in all these years, being just 2 per cent below normal till September 13.

The copious, albeit unevenly distributed, rainfall is reflected also in plentiful storage in water reservoirs. As many as 70 of the 76 major reservoirs have over 80 per cent storage.

The total water in all the dams was estimated on September 14 at 116.89 billion cubic metres (BCM), 16 per cent above last year's corresponding level of 100.8 BCM, and over 31 per cent in excess of the past 10 years' average of 89.3 BCM.

According to the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), an attack of pests like stem borers and leaf rollers has been observed on the main kharif crop of paddy in various areas. It has advised farmers to spray endosulfan or malathion to avert yield losses.

Also, the dreaded woolly aphid pest affecting sugarcane has been spotted in Maharashtra and parts of Karnataka. Farmers have been advised to be vigilant against its spread. It had annihilated the sugarcane crop the year before last, resulting in poor sugar production.

Kharif sowing data till September 18 indicates that paddy sowing is over in the entire north, though transplanting is continuing in the southern peninsula.

Despite some slippage in areas in Punjab, West Bengal and Maharashtra, about 2 lakh hectares of additional area has been planted with paddy this year. But the area under coarse cereals has shrunk by about 16 lakh hectares.

The area under pulses is more or less the same as in the last season -- about 110.4 lakh hectares -- but that under oilseeds has dropped by 6 per cent to 162 lakh hectares. Commercial crops like cotton and sugarcane have gained in area, and their sowing is virtually over.