FICCI pegs India's 2017-18 GDP growth at 7.4%

In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held its GDP growth trajectory for India at 7.2%

Industry body FICCI's latest Economic Outlook Survey has pegged India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth at around 7.4 percent for the fiscal year 2017-18. The survey was conducted during March and April 2017 recorded a median GDP group forecast of 7.4 percent for the current fiscal year, with a minimum and maximum level of 7 percent and 7.6 percent respectively.

The pick-up in overall GDP growth will also be supported by an improvement in industry and services sector growth. 

"The industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.9 per cent and 8.4 per cent respectively in 2017-18," FICCI said. 

The survey was conducted amongst economists belonging to the industry, banking and financial services sector.

Also, the India Meteorological Department's latest forecast of monsoon arriving on time and being sufficient provides some reprieve amidst earlier reports of the El Nino having a dampening effect this year.

RBI in its latest policy statement estimated CPI inflation to average 4.5 percent in the first half of the year and 5 percent in the second half.

When asked about  Universal Basic Income (UBI), the economists who participated in the survey said the idea must be taken forward and explored in detail, which would include a plan for implementation and evaluating and overcoming the possible road blocks. However, they also pointed out that though this concept would be relevant in the context of providing guaranteed minimum basic support to people, implementation will be a difficult task. 

It was also pointed out that India lags behind in key human development indicators such as health, nutrition, education, sanitation and drinking water. In such a scenario, a universal income hand-out would not entirely solve some of the key problems that the poor face.

The economists felt that while protectionism is a challenge, India needs to keep its focus on implementing reforms. The situation calls for improving the investment climate in the country, enhancing hard and soft infrastructure and continuing the efforts on tackling the issue of non-performing assets.