Foodgrain output seen rising 2%; storage woes likely for wheat

For the 2012-13 crop marketing year ending June, India’s wheat production is estimated at 93.62 million tonnes (mt), close to last year’s record output of 94.88 mt. This could aggravate the already grim foodgrain storage scenario in the country.

According to latest data, foodgrain stocks in state-run warehouses are estimated at 60 mt, almost thrice the required quantity. With the government planning to purchase an additional 40 mt of wheat from farmers this year, officials said the inventories could swell to about 90 mt by the first week of June.

Ramesh Chand, director, National Centre For Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, said, “Estimates of another year of a near-record wheat harvest in 2012-13 would surely aggravate the storage problem, as already, foodgrain stocks are at record levels and the storage capacity is limited. The only ray of hope is to aggressively promote wheat exports at whatever price possible, without thinking of a loss to the Food Corporation of India or anyone else.”

Meanwhile, the government’s third advanced estimate for the 2012-13 crop marketing year released today showed mustard seed production was estimated at 7.4 mt, 0.8 mt more than last year. In 2012-13, overall foodgrain production is expected at 255.36 mt, 3.96 mt less than last year, owing to the poor output of rice, coarse cereals and moong. The production of rice is estimated at 104.22 mt, 1.09 mt less than last year, while production of coarse cereals is estimated at 39.52 mt, against 42.04 mt last year. Moong production is estimated at 1.18 mt, 0.45 mt less than last year.

However, pulses production would exceed that in 2011-12, owing to good production of urad and tur. For 2012-13, production of pulses is estimated at 18 mt, a rise of 0.91 mt compared to 2011-12. The production of oilseeds is estimated at 30.7 mt, about 0.9 mt more than in 2011-12.

Soybean production is estimated at 14.1 mt, against 12.96 mt last year, while groundnut production is seen at about 5.4 mt, about 1.56 mt less than last year. Among cash crops, production of cotton is estimated at 33.8 million bales (1 bale=170 kg), against 35.2 million bales last year, while that of jute is seen at 10.6 million bales (1 bale=180 kg), against 11.13 million bales in 2011-12.