Four-way split may not help BJP in UP

BJP's internal pre-poll surveys predict a 10-seat increase from 25

After Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati's announcement that her party will enter into no seat adjustments with any party in Uttar Pradesh, a four-cornered contest is certain in the state.

This should have been a dream scenario for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It has consistently held that a four-cornered contest will boost its prospects.

The party has gone to great lengths to prevent the formation of an alliance between the BSP and the Congress.

Even the BJP's internal pre-poll surveys predict that the result of a four-way split will lead to an increase in the party's tally from the current 25 to 35.

But figures show that in a four-cornered contest between the Samajwadi Party (SP), the BSP, the Congress and the BJP, it is still disadvantage BJP.

In the 1999 elections, the BJP had lost by a whisker in 12 Lok Sabha seats, which they are determined to win this time.

Their tally could go up to 35 only if they win at least 10 of these 12 seats. The polls project this fond hope. But this is a questionable proposition.

Figures show that a Mulayam Singh-Mayawati feud cannot ever be to the advantage of the BJP. The 1999 Lok Sabha elections was a "wave" election. Public sympathy for the party after a one-vote defeat of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government was heightened by the Kargil clashes.

But even in "wave" conditions, the BJP and its allies (like Menaka Gandhi) got only 27.54 per cent of votes. In terms of the Lok Sabha seat, the BJP got 29 seats out of the 85 in undivided UP""down by 28 seats from its tally in 1998. In terms of percentage, the BJP's support base shrank by 9 per cent in the 1999 polls over 1998.

A sulking Kalyan Singh, then UP Chief Minister, could have acted spoiler. But there is no denying the fact that by the time the elections came around, Singh had lost political ground at that time and could influence only Lodh voters that account for hardly 2 per cent of the electorate.

Now that Singh is back in the BJP, the BJP central leadership is optimistic of his ability to mobilise the other backward class (OBC) voters.

However, in sharp contrast to the BJP's decline in popularity, Mayawati's BSP registered an impressive performance by securing 22.08 per cent of votes, two per cent more than its share in 1999 and winning 14 seats.

In some constituencies of west UP and east UP where the SP and the BSP were locked in straight battle, the BJP and the Congress faced virtual marginalisation.

That the SP also lost its base in 1999 election is illustrated by the reduction in its vote, which came down to 24.06 per cent in 1999 from 28.69 per cent in 1998.

The apparent logic for Yadav losing ground is the drifting away of a section of Muslims after his decision not to support Sonia Gandhi in her attempt to become the Prime Minister. The Muslims of UP never forgave Yadav because this action was viewed as being pro-BJP.

So not only did the SP and the BSP cut into each others' votes but also into the BJP votes. Even a small shift away from the BJP was enough to make it lose badly to the BSP and the SP.

A more recent pointer is the Assembly elections in 2002 when the multi-cornered virtually relegated the BJP to the third position.

Although these results cannot be juxtaposed on a Lok Sabha election, they do give an indication of the way votes are divided.

In the Assembly elections, the BJP lost 7 per cent of votes from 1999 levels and got only 20.08 per cent with just 88 Assembly seats to its credit.

But the SP and the BSP got 25.37 per cent and 23.06 per cent, respectively. The one discernible trend in all these elections is that while the SP has had to fight hard to retain its base, the BSP has always expanded its base and added to its previous tallies.

These two parties have effectively marginalised the BJP and virtually decimated the Congress, which could manage only its traditional strong-holds with a great deal of difficulty.